forex signal provider? which one?

So you decided to make full time leaving from foreign exchange market? Or you are going to supplement your income from here? You have set up yourself with proper broker available. I believe you spent hundred of hours in front of PC trying to put together all maths and physics involving currency market. Now you watching business news in the morning paper and following CNBC channel to be on the top with latest information from exchange market. You trading your demo account trying to figure out how to make it all work? So? Does it? No?

Face the fact that in currency market all is possible and there is no golden rule to follow. There are so many aspects to consider that you will need at least another head to set this puzzle together.

But do not worry there is a hope that can make it work.

Signal solutions for forex trading. People who traded forex for a long time and developed their own systems to enter and exit with profit strategies. They will share this knowledge with you for varieties of prices from usd49 to usd499 a month for those precious information. Problem is which one will suit you best. Are they scams? How do I know?

For medium advanced forex trader is almost impossible to choose proper forex signal system, which is not a scam, or at least not profitable. There is bulk of forex signals providers out there. They all offer their signal solution to trade currency with success.

Advice is that you will have to establish what type of trader are you? Do you want to trade quickly or maybe over the days or weeks? What losses can you manage and how much money you want to invest.

As long as you know al that it is a time to pick up signal trade provider.

Few things worth researching are: performance, service offered and rewievs of the signal. Search on forum for another users of the product you are interested in and ask for comment. Every profitable system should be up on collective2 with real track performance. Look for service offered. You will quickly find out that only few offer free trail-option to try signals before you pay. Demand performance evidence.

But while doing all that hard work choosing your automat forex signal system remember that you will have to totally follow it without exceptions to make most out of it. Any even small innovation may have dramatic results in your own gains.

Trading Software At Its Best

The Forex MegaDroid has been developed by John Grace and Albert Perrie. Both are forex traders with 38 years 4x trading experience between them. As close friends, over time they firmed up their thoughts about developing their own 4x trading software robot.

Sadly the Forex MegaDroid has a horrid sales page like all the others do - which initially was a big turn off for me.

It's exactly the look and feel you'd expect from a used car salesman with sleazy tactics. It is so tacky that I expected to be reporting here that their 4x software product is a disgrace. But during my research of them, I was forced to reconsider my first impressions. The proven, ongoing live testing results confirm this.

In all of the live-account testing I have seen, there is no question that it performs exceptionally well. They claim better than a 95% successful trade rate - which I doubted very much - but it's true. I have seen the proof many times.

Visit Forex Robots Reviewed by clicking the link below to see links to live 4x trading accounts of this 4x software in action.

This guy bought his MegaDroid, installed it easily, and opened live forex trading accounts with 3 different brokers. In each account he put $3,000. From each account ID, he gave his MegaDroid the data feed from each broker. The robot can then execute trades on his accounts.

He set his limits of risk he was happy with per the training. And then he sat and watched. He is a novice trader. He has just started out. He did nothing more than install it, set it on the default risk levels. Then he just watched and let it do its thing.

At the time of writing that review (May 14, 2009) - his 3 different broker accounts (using the one copy of MegaDroid) had made 37 trades.

Of the 37 trades, 36 made a profit - only 1 trade lost money - $7.36. For the 24 days trading till just then (on fully automatic) - his net profit is $1,067.15.

I am impressed by that. As of May 14, 2009 that's 97.3% profitable trades.

Also it is important to note the $/trade profit versus the $/trade loss. The 36 profitable trades were for an average of $29.85 profit each trade. As said, the 1 losing trade was for $7.36.

So, that's 36:1 profit to lose ratio on the number of trades. And a 4:1 ratio on the size of profits compared to losses.

My view is that even if a trader was expert and smart enough to do what the MegaDroid has demonstrated here, no human could concentrate long enough and consistently enough to match the performance.

Still not impressed? Then look at other live 4x trading account on the website Forex Robots Reviewed (link below).

MegaDroid $10,000 opening balance January 1, 2009 LIVE

As of May 14, 2009 it has now got a balance of $78,138.70. 103 trades - 101 trades made a profit. Look at the profit graph - sorry you have to visit the web page to get the link to the live 4x trading account.

Through the years of Forex trading John and Albert did realize that most Forex robot systems were designed and developed with only a single forex market condition in mind.

While this maybe true, I don't really care - I just want it to make money reliably and safely.

Every Forex trader does know that the forex market changes all the time. It is clear from real proof that the MegaDroid Forex Trading Robot has a system built into it that embraces this change.

The vendors claim this system has been successfully created to perform at 95.82% accuracy. What I have witnessed from real traders doing real trading it performs better than that. The novice is seeing 97.3%, and the professional is seeing just slightly better than 98%.

But don't rush off an buy Megadroid just yet. There are some important facts you need to know - so visit Forex Robots Reviewed to find out all about it.

You'll see the link below. Click it now if you want to make some serious money

COMMON MISTAKE BY FOREX TRADERS - USING TOO MUCH LEVERAGE

Forex trading is among the most lucrative industries that independent individuals can participate in. Beginners, though, are susceptible to making mistakes that may result in the depletion or total loss of their investment.

One of the strong suits of currency trading is that it allows traders to use leverage or to trade on margin. This means that they can buy or sell currencies despite a small account balance. Novice traders at times take advantage of this opportunity and decide to use too much leverage on a large trade. Such a move is highly risky since if the market shifts the opposite direction from what is expected, the trader may suffer greater losses.

Over trading is another tendency that beginners and experts in forex trading alike should avoid. Newbies often easily get excited by observed market movements and trade by impulse, expecting drastic shifts that fail to materialize. To some extremes, they engage in multiple trades at once simply because they wish to. Frequent trading in the absence of real earning opportunities may as well lead to loss.

In an effort to maximize their profit, a lot of new traders also speculate the point at which the chosen currency pair will turn around. Referred to as "tops" and "bottoms", these points are difficult to determine even for veteran traders. At times, it is more advisable to trade when a gradual, but constant movement is observed that yields less but more definite earning.

Forex trading firms today utilize their own platform that allows novices to trade in simulation mode. With enough practice, there are fewer chances that traders would make these mistakes and increased likelihood of earning high in this profitable business.

Most Fail Because They Cannot Accept This Key Point

I teach forex for a living and it never ceases to amaze me that people don't think the next key point is the key to forex trading success. If you don't accept this key point and mentally prepare for it, you will lose too.

When I look at the forex education online much of it makes me laugh. You have vendors selling products that promise extra ordinary profits for no effort, with hardly a loss at all but this is not the real world - it's the fantasy world of them selling simulated track records backwards knowing all the data.

Real life trading is a bit harder you don't know what will happen and losses have to be confronted and dealt with.

The Reality

The reality of forex trading is no matter how clever you are how good you're trading system you are going to suffer drawdown and losses and most traders cannot cope with them.

Even the best traders will lose for weeks on end sometimes, that's just the way forex trading is. This doesn't mean you can't win, you can - but you need to face these losing periods and keep these losses small until you hit a home run.

Sound easy?

Well if you trade already, you know it's hard but the way to do it and stick on course until you hit a home run is as follows:

Being Disciplined and Hitting Home Runs

First you need to accept as part of your essential forex education, that losing is part of winning.

Don't let them hurt your ego or get angry it's not personal! Then, you need to make sure you trade with discipline, you will only ever do this if, you know the forex trading systems logic and have confidence in it so if its not your own learn it.

The ability to keep losses small is the key. To do this always assume the worst, place your stop and leave it - never run a mental stop. In most cases if you run a mental stop, you are tempted to hang on to long and think the loss will turn around and this is a fatal mistake.

Like a good football team your success is built on defence - keep it tight at the back and don't concede too much and if you have a sound system, sooner or later, it will hit the big trades you can run to cover your losses.

So the moral is keep losses small, take them cheerfully and see them as your overhead, in the quest for success.

Always Remember

You can be clever you can have a good system but if you are not disciplined taking your losses and keeping them small, you will lose.

In terms of forex success you have to lose to win; this has always been so and always will be so don't fight accept it and your forex trading strategy with good money management and discipline, will lead you to the currency trading success you desire.

How Do You Know Who is Really an Expert?

Anyone can claim to be a Forex expert advisor but most are not. So what Forex expert advisors deliver and how do you spot them? Lets find out...

Most Forex Expert advisors have computer software they have programmed which they claim will make you money - but the vast majority of it is based on unsound logic which has no chance of working.

The problem is most of the systems are presented with a hypothetical back test as evidence of the systems money making power.

This though proves nothing, as the vendor knows all the prices - the exact tops and bottoms and can buy and sell, knowing these facts. It's no wonder some of the track records would put the best Forex fund managers in the world to shame. The problem of course is there not real.

Just because someone can make a simulation profitable means nothing. That's why the system has probably not been traded by the vendor. If it was as good as they say they would have one and in fact they wouldn't sell it for $100 - they wouldn't need to, they would be making to much money to bother.

So forget these get rich quick methods that don't work and seek out a forex expert advisor who has a real track record or something worthwhile to teach you so you can devise your own.

If you find a mechanical forex trading system with a real track over a few years, just check the logic, make sure you understand it and can trade it with discipline through losing periods.

Despite the fact that most novice traders go for an automatic system, it's a fact that most serious forex traders do not use pure mechanical trading methods, they have human input on - the trade set ups and risk exposure and this really is the way to trade in my view.

Forex expert advisors are out there, who have made real money or can teach you Forex trading strategies to get the odds on your side - but they are a minority.

Most vendors hope the novice Forex trader falls for his simulated track record and the trader gets wiped out - don't fall for them, shop around and find a real expert who is a trader and has traded real money.

Anyone Can Learn to Win But 95% of Traders Lose Why?

Forex trading is simple to understand and easy to learn yet, 95% of traders lose. There are two main reasons for this and we will look at both here...

First let's start with a fact to make you think:

30 years ago 95% of traders lost and 95% lose today despite the huge advances in communications, speed of data, quality of news and the power of computers and there testing power - the same ratio lose, so all the advances haven't helped.

You can't beat Forex with technology and the fact is simple systems work best and always have, as they have fewer elements to break than complicated ones.

So if you work hard or try and be clever it doesn't guarantee you success.

You may now well be asking...

If it only takes a simple system to win, anyone can do that and yes they can - but they must learn to apply it with discipline.

Discipline is the key!

Most traders can never trade in a disciplined fashion and the reasons they can't are they require that, not only do you need a good forex education but you are fighting your emotions when you trade and let them get the better of you and you will lose.

Normal behaviour we take for granted in society is fatal in forex markets. Let's look at some examples to illustrate this:

- You need to trade in isolation, away from the herd and this is hard, as we are like to be with the majority and not feel on our own.

- You cannot consult an expert, as trading success comes from within - your knowledge and the confidence you have in it and an expert can never give you that.

- There are no set rules in the market, you make your own, trust them and survive by them.

- We all hate losing, it wounds our ego but unless you learn to lose and keep your losses small you will never win.

Now all the above make trading a unique challenge.

Sure you can become disciplined - but don't let anyone tell you its easy - it isn't.

Of course, you wouldn't expect it to be, with the rewards on offer - but if you are disciplined and you have a sound logical method, applying it with discipline can bring you rewards which can change your financial future forever.

The choice is yours:

You can learn Forex trading the right way, or you can listen to the so called gurus and experts, who tell you it's a walk in the park and lose.

Make an effort - invest in a sound Forex education and you will have confidence and discipline and win - it's as simple as that. You can do it if you want to and the choice is yours.

Forex Autopilot System - Review

There are plenty of ways to make money on the internet nowadays, but they usually require you to have your own product and website, which involves a lot of your time and energy and which is not even guaranteed to make you money.

We live in an interesting time in the history of the world. Never before has there been so many ways to make money and never before has the average person been within reach of the ability to literally make millions. And you can do it from home.

Currently the United States Dollar is at an all time low versus the Euro and at times the Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar. If you don’t follow such things don’t be embarrassed that you don’t know this, you probably wouldn’t even have it come to your attention unless you are planning a trip to Europe. But this is important to you even if you don’t realize it. Trade with other Nations depends on the currency value of each country. Currently the U.S. Dollar being so low is playing a part in why we are paying $4.25/gallon for gasoline.

But with every storm there comes a silver lining, or at least history would say so. You see, with the U.S. Dollar so low and knowing at some time it MUST come back up you can get into this opportunity for as little as $100. If you are new to this type of investment you should start reading up on it and also look into the program Forex Autopilot System.

Forex Autopilot System is a unique program that allows people who know nothing about trading on the forex market, to make thousands and thousands per month. It was created by Mark Copeland, who starting trading forex 8 years ago. He was an analyst at Goldman Sachs’s, and while he was there he researched the huge complicated system that the big boy uses to make killer trades for millions of dollars.

Forex Autopilot System, a simple piece of software able to run on your pc. The system only uses the most advanced technologies, running on hundreds of computers. The system runs on the Meta trading platform, which is the most famous trading platform in the forex world. You can start with as little as $100 on a real forex account or learn the ropes on a demo account without risking any money at all.

Reliable and consistent, it works everyday even when you are not at home, because it is fully automated, which means you just watch it work for you. Once your have downloaded the program it takes about 15-20 minutes to setup the system for it to be ready for trading.

With program you can expect to make around 5-25% return per month. And that means with this system you can make 75 pips or 150 pips ($7500 or $15000) per month, it all depends on your trading capital. The one drawback that I noticed is that there isn’t a stop-loss built into the software which you will have to set manually. So it is best that you do a little research on Forex Trading before you actually put real money into it. I suggest that for all types of investment vehicles, don’t trust programs 100% until you have seen them run for a while.

The reason that I said that this is a historical time in our lives is that when the U.S. Dollar comes back up it will move probably over 1000 pips (each pip is worth $10.00, you can own more than one pip so this could be a Million Dollar Move) over the next year or so. So realistically $100 can turn into $1,000,000.

Now tell me, when has that ever been possible in the history of the world?

Forex Signals - Will They Help You Or Hurt You?

The Forex market confuses many inexperienced traders. Some companies take advantage of their confusions by enticing them to purchase Forex signals. Forex signals are touted as a way to help the new traders get a better understanding of the market and how the market works. Thinking these signals will give them an advantage, many novice traders purchase them. Some traders benefit from the signals and some don’t. Whether Forex signals are worth the cost is a matter of dispute.

Each trader must decide for themselves if the benefits of the signals are worth the cost. New traders in the Forex market should research the value and usefulness of signals before deciding if they should purchase them. They should learn more about Forex signals, find out what precautions to take, and how to proceed. They should also learn what other options they have instead of paying for Forex signals.

Novice traders are cautioned against paying for Forex signals by many experts. Signals may seem appealing to inexperienced traders, but signals can have disappointing results. The trader needs to trust the person selling the signals, and that can be a difficult thing for an inexperienced trader. According to experts, if the people selling Forex signals were great traders then they would be making their living from the Forex market instead of from selling Forex signals. Traders considering buying the signals should consider this distinction carefully.

There are few things you should consider before buying Forex signals. Traders should select signals from sellers who give a free trial. Legitimate businesses are willing to allow you to test their information before buying it. Traders should get audited results from the signal provider. Company who are unwilling to give audited results should not be considered. In order to ensure that the trader is receiving information that will benefit them, they should only work with companies who are willing to provide previous, audited results to the trader. Companies who validate their information are easier for the trader to trust than companies who refuse to give traders a trial of their services and audited results.

Inexperienced traders who want some help getting started should apply for a trial account from a Forex broker. Trial accounts allow traders to practice trading without using real money, and thereby learn about the Forex market. Traders can use trial accounts to learn the fundamentals of the Forex and gain experience with trading and research. Many brokers offer trial accounts with the expectation that traders will gain information and comfort with the Forex, and will develop a business relationship with the broker.

Traders who decide to open a traditional Forex account should start trading with a small deposit until they gain experience. Traders who start trading with a small account will be less afraid to trade because they have less to lose. Once traders move from a trial account to a traditional account they should keep in mind that the different ramifications from their trades may cause a psychological impact from using real money. Traders should be aware of this when they begin traditional trading and should act accordingly.

Forex Strategy-Which Strategy is the Best?

Investing in any kind of business or industry entails not only knowledge and hard work but also the perfect and best strategy for a winning game. Forex trading business has been one of the most attractive moneymaking opportunities for lot of people these days. You read it in the papers; you watch it in the news. Everybody's is raving for a piece of winning from it.

Staying on top of a big and risky business, such as forex trading, needs the best forex strategy, wherein you can continuously use all throughout the trade and still not lose in the game or can upgrade and develop over time. Such strategies should keep maximizing your profits and giving you a big slice of the forex cake.

But did you know that to establish the best forex strategy, it is important for a trader to understand other strategies that the market has been dealing with for sometime? These strategies will be your basis in formulating your own workable forex strategy.

Normal Trading Day. This happens when the market is experiencing a normal trading day, wherein the currency price begins quite below or above 75ma. Next, it stretches a little, and then back to 75ma. This event refers to a certain currency being stable, showing the smallest sign that you should make some adjustment son your position.

Slow Trading Day. This happens when the market is witnessing a slow trading condition, wherein the currency price starts at 200ma, but stretches no over than 20pips,a and goes back to 200ma on that same trading day. When it happens, this paves the way to a normal trading day. After which, you make some adjustments on your strategy because it indicates stability of the value of currency.

Fast Trading Day. It happens when the market is having a fast trading day, wherein the currency price is quite below or above 21ema. It ascends and descends afterwards. Then, returns to 21ema. This signifies optimistic movements of the features that affect the mother country's currency, although such movements can be both for the good or bad.

Big Range Day. This pertain to the lows and highs of the range of the subject - that is 20pips apart. It signifies the currency's instability. It can also be good or bad. At this case, your strategy should be flexible enough for anything that might happen.

Any forex strategy have to be taken with flexibility, vigilance and utmost caution. Most traders have learned to establish their own strategy to ensure the success of their financial ventures. However, there is no perfect or absolute forex strategy or method over time. Strategies have to be updated and enhanced every now and then because the market conditions are dependent on a per day basis.

To learn the real art of forex trading is never that easy. It takes a lot of patience, observation, critical mindedness, awareness, motivation, wisdom, and understanding to really get into the business for the longest time.

Can It Make You A Successful Trader?

Until relatively recently fundamental analysis, or looking at past political and economic events to help them predict price movements in the underlying currencies they traded, is how most traders arrived at trading decisions.

However, fundamental analysis requires a trader to absorb lots of diverse information from many sources and considerable knowledge to interpret it accurately. Couple this with basic disagreements as to what information is important and what weight to assign it and you can begin to see why this method took enormous resources and time. Two characteristics not commonly associated with the individual investor.

The end result was that for years currency trading was the exclusive playground of large banks or other institutions with the resources to accomplish this type of analysis

Now, the rise of computing power and the proliferation of electronic information sources have lead to a fundamental shift in the way most traders analyze the Forex market.

Today most traders employ another, more automated, form of analysis known as technical analysis. This involves the combined charting of real-time and historical price movement data of currencies. Today this is mostly accomplished using computers which have the ability to do the sometimes complex math quickly in near real-time.

Technical analysis really boils down to simply taking the over one hundred years worth of recorded historical price data available from the foreign currency market and running it through a computerized charting application to look for patterns and trends.

Once these patterns or trends are identified they must be quantified in there ability to predict price moves in a particular direction. Once done, a trader can then look at the manner in which a currency's price is currently moving and compare this to similar past patterns to predict the future direction of movement.

So, while technical analysis still requires skill, experience, and judgment the fact that it is more automated and less subjective than the research involved in fundamental analysis contributes to it's popularity. The debate over which method is better will probably never be resolved, but most traders feel that technical analysis is easier to learn and master.

There are three underlying principles one must be familiar with to fully understand technical analysis.

First, there are many factors, such as political or economic events, that will produce price movement in a particular currency pair. However, these factors, or reasons, are not what's important to technical analysis, but rather the price movement itself.

Second, technical analysis assumes that pricing moves follow a trend that can be discerned by tracking the patterns that emerge over time in the market.

Finally, the trends and patterns that emerge from historical charting and analysis of price will also be reflected in future price action movements. This is because, in the view of the technical analyst, the trading psychology of humans remains for the most part constant over time. So market participants will react in similar fashion to similar news in the future the same as they have in the past.

This "wisdom of crowds" or at least the predictability of crowds is dismissed by followers of the fundamental analysis approach. They hold to their belief that a deep understanding of the factors that affect pricing and not a reliance on patterns is the only way to produce reliable long term results.

In spite what the fans of fundamental analysis say the majority of traders today rely almost entirely on a some form of technical analysis for trading currency.

No system, whether based on fundamental and technical analysis, can accurately predict price movements every time but a good technical trader who takes the time to learn a sound methodology can do quite well.

Understanding the Forex Market

With a host of different market makers, rather than a few specific specialist, and no centralized market, there still exists both and identifiable structure and specific hierarchy within the Forex market.

At the top of the pyramid the InterBank market, made up primarily of the currencies of G8 countries representing around 65 percent of the global economy, has the highest volume of trading. Within this InterBank market the major banks trade among each other using lines of credit between individual member banks.

The banks use InterBank brokers and electronic trading systems to facilitate trading transactions among one another with all applicable rate information available in real-time to all parties.

While the major banks trade within the InterBank market many smaller players like corporations or smaller banks use commercial banks to facilitate their trading activities. Without established lines of credit between members as in the InterBank structure these smaller players typically use a single bank for all their transactions and usually trade at higher less competitive rates.

Until recently the domination of the major banks and the closed nature of the market members acted s a barrier to entry for those individuals wishing to trade foreign currency. However, the advent of internet-based information and trading systems coupled with less restrictive regulations have opened up this multi-billion dollar market to the average investor.

Changes in the nature of the Forex market itself have also opened up opportunities. Whereas foreign currency trading was once primarily considered an aspect of international trade activity to facilitate a country's import export activity, today's market sees a broader range of capital flowing between players such as mutual funds, insurance companies, institutions, and even private individual investors.

It is the massive market size and diversity of participants which give the Forex it's superior liquidity and transparency that make it an ideal opportunity for the active investor. Higher leverage, and online trading capabilities means just about anyone with a few thousand dollars to invest can get started.

New traders or people that are considering a move into the Forex market are often discouraged from hearing over and over that the Forex market is difficult to make money in. Quite simply it isn't. You just have to go into it with right attitude or mindset.

Experienced traders often refer to this as your trading psychology. Part of a healthy and successful trading psychology will definitely include the following three attitudes or concepts.

First, know when to get in and out of a trade. That means setting your goals in advance and not just winging it once you opened a position. Plan you trade and trade your plan.

Failing to plan will ensure that you are surprised by the market more often than not and will hesitate and watch helplessly as a positive trade becomes a loss.

Successful traders watch the basic and proven indicators to determines the viability of there trades. Of all the indicators used in Forex trading price is the most accurate and useful in the long run. Complexity can kill your trading success so always keep it simple.

A Review of the Trend Lines Forex & Futures Video Forecast Service

When you are looking into getting the money that you need to do the things that you want, you'll soon discover that there are many different options out there that say that they will help you figure out what you are after. When you want to make sure that you are going to be quick and aggressive about the opportunities that are open in front of you, you'll soon find that the options that are being offered to you might be a little suspect when it comes to the information that you are looking at.

When you look at the investment opportunities that you might looking for, you'll soon discover that there are many things that you have to keep in mind and that if you don't keep your head, you might end up losing money that you cannot afford to lose!

For many people when it comes to the world of Forex and trading futures, good information is worth more than gold and unless you can really move ahead and get the options that you are interested in, you'll soon discover that there are plenty of options open to you when it comes to looking at what you want, especially when you start looking at the Trend Lines Forex & Futures Video Forecast Service.

The Trend Lines Forex & Futures Video Forecast Service is one of the most valuable tools that you can have helping you along when it comes to looking into what kind of options you have in front of you. If you want to play a high risk, high yield investment game, you'll soon find that playing it without any good information coming in can be a truly negative and horrifying experience.

And if you find that you are able to move forward and to get the options that you need that you will need good sources to do so. When you are looking at the very options that are in front of you, you need to consider where you are getting your information from, and with this in mind, you need to think about things that involve good motion and you need to make sure that you stay on top of it.

Just like having Trend Lines Forex & Futures Video Forecast Service on tap can help you, you'll find that actually not having it will hurt you. Think about the traders who have lost a great deal of money when they forget to check the daily, weekly and monthly charts that are available to them.

You'll find that you can have a five-year at a glance market that is important and comes with all of the trendline date already mapped out for you in advance. If you want to take advantage of data that has already been compiled and put together in a way that will be easy and straightforward when it comes to reading it, you'll soon discover that the Trend Lines Forex & Futures Video Forecast Service is something that you need to think about.

Forex Market Hours

Many people ask about Forex market hours thinking that it's like the stock market, which opens and closes each business day. But, that's not how the foreign exchange market works.

The Forex market operates 24 hours a day and is the most liquid market in the world, enabling you to enter and exit your positions nearly at will. Yes, it's that open and flexible.

However, the Forex market is also very risky to trade. There are times during the day and night that offer you some very good movement and consequently some higher risk. In short, knowing the "peak and valley" hours of the foreign exchange is more important than knowing that it's open 24 hours a day.

Studying the various currency pairing and how they trade during various times of the day will help determine which pairing (or pairings) you should concentrate on and at which times offer you more opportunities based on your trading style.

It is advisable at first to concentrate on just one pairing. Trying to watch two, three or more pairings can lead you into making bad decisions. So, to begin, focus on one of the big six (major) pairings, which are:

1. Euro Dollar vs. the US Dollar (EUR/USD)
2. British Pound vs. the US Dollar (GBP/USD)
3. Australian Dollar vs. the US Dollar (AUD/USD)
4. US Dollar vs. the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
5. US Dollar vs. the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
6. US Dollar vs. the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)

Yes, there are opportunities at all times of the day and night to make trades with these pairings. However, the best opportunities you will find are when you have two major markets open at the same time.

That's a $100 tip. If you know these windows of opportunity you can decrease risks and increase your potential profits on the FX market.

Here are the major market times you should be aware of:

* New York -- 8am to 4pm EST
* London -- 2am to 12nn EST
* Great Britain -- 3am to 11am EST
* Tokyo -- 8pm to 4am EST
* Australia -- 7pm to 3am EST

You will notice that there are plenty of times to trade (24 hours a day!) But if you look at that list, you will see that from 8am EST to 12pm EST you have two of the largest financial markets open at the same time: New York and London! These are your golden hours to trade Forex online.

You will also notice that, if you are a night owl, you also have some prime hours from about 2am EST to 4am EST, with London and Tokyo both open.

The best way to see which times will work for you is to first open a demo account with a Forex broker. All reputable Forex brokers will have a free demo account available for you to use. Once you have the account set up, log into the demo account during various times of the day. Watch how the market reacts among the various currency pairings.

Given enough screen time, you will start to learn the various nuances of each currency pair and what times of the day will fit with your schedule and your trading strategy.

And when you are ready to trade a live account with real money on the line, you will be much better prepared to make that first trade in this great market.

Forex Trading Online and Money Management

If you're going to be Forex trading online then you need to understand the basic principles of money management. In this article you'll learn several key ideas that relate to both foreign trading and general market trading. If you don't pay attention to this rules, you could lose a lot of money quickly.

You know the old saying: "Never place all of your eggs in one basket." This is very true of the Forex market (or any financial market for that matter.)

It is widely held that one should NEVER risk more than 5% (or less) on any one trade. This is the basis behind money (or risk) management.

It helps keep you from getting emotionally attached to the trade. It is VERY easy to get angry at the market for a trade that went bad -- you will want to "get even." Everyone has experienced this. BUT if you stick to the 5% or less rule, it will help contain that urge to invest more money into a losing trade.

Oh, and you will lose money trading if you don't. Period.

There is not one person on this planet that always makes good trades. It is simply not possible...well, ok: it's simple not probable. If a person were to be a perfect trader, we would have no markets. They would dominate everything. If you read any trading book, magazine or website (and you should), if they are intelligent at all, they will all tell you the same thing. You will lose money trading. The key is to limit your risk as best as you can and to stick to your money management plan.

Most traders lose money because of a lack of a trading plan and not having strict money management guidelines.

It is important that you understand the risks involved in Forex trading. You need not to over invest or be overconfident at the thrill of opportunity of making huge money.

Create a money management plan by simply writing down your goal and objectives. You know what amount of money you are going to start your account with, so take that number and do the calculations to see how much money you can risk with each trade...remember: no more than 5%, less if possible.

Write it down and keep it in front of you at all times. Remind yourself of your limits.

Trading the Forex market is a skill that takes quite a bit of time to learn. And while you may have some good success at first, keep yourself grounded. It will become very tempting, especially after having quite a few winning trades in a row, to become overconfident and start risking more than your allotted 5% limit. You are setting yourself up for disaster if you fall into this false sense of "I CAN'T LOSE" mentality.

Take your time, study the nuances of the market, and set up a strict money management plan. This will help you stay in this game longer than the average trader!

The Forex Market Trading Plan

This article will explain exactly why you need a Forex market trading plan. Furthermore, we'll give you a couple of simple ideas to get started with your own personal foreign exchange trading plan.

When is the last time you took a trip out of state to a place you have never been before? Did you get into your vehicle and just start driving, hoping that you will just somehow find your destination? Ok, yes, perhaps it would be fun to discover new territory without a road map, but most times you will find it hard and very frustrating to get where you want to go.

That is why you make plans, and creating a trading plan is no different. It is, in fact, way more important than a simple road trip!

Forex marketer trading plans are meant to make you create a roadmap on where you are currently, where you want to go, and the rules you will need in order to help you get there.

Creating an FX trading plan involves writing down your goals and objectives in your trading venture. You will want to keep it as simple as possible, but with enough detail and with strict rules so that when you start to question your trading, you can look back at your plan and get back on track. Having a trading plan is a key to consistency, which is the cornerstone of your trading life.

Having a trading plan also allows for continuing growth and expansion of your trading career. If you stick with your plan, you should be able to gradually and continually increase your trading account, giving you the ability to trade larger lots, and hopefully make a good living from doing so.

There is an adage in the trading community that you will hear and see quite often:

Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan

You will find that this is very easy to say, but can be very difficult to do. However, it is essential that you follow the advice. All it means is that you create your trading guidelines (setups to watch for, entry rules and exits, and what you are allowed to risk on each trade) and then follow through with what you have written.

Here are some key things that make up a trading plan:

Your System: Are you a day trader or a swing trader? What charts do you watch? What indicators do you watch? What are your entries and exits? What is the most you are willing to risk per trade?

Your Goals: What dollar amount do you want to try and achieve the first month, second month, etc.? What is your yearly income goal? What dollar amount is your "drop dead" figure (meaning at what point or loss of capital do you stop trading for good)? What do you want to get out of trading?

Your Weaknesses: Do you tend to overtrade FX? Do you stick with your money management rules? Do you overreact with anger?

You can find sample trading plans on the internet and please use them to create your own, custom Forex trading plan.

Create it, stick to it, read it, re-read it, and revise it as needed. Doing so will give you an advantage over many other traders that simple will not take the time to create one!

Make Your Business Easy

You can not find a person who is dong business and is making profit only. This is quite impossible specially if the person is dealing in white goods. Profit and loss are the integral parts of any business. The fact is true for any kind of business. Online trading is also not an exception. Loss is a part of business but the degree of losses can be lowered by adopting some techniques, by taking wise decisions and also by opting for some good services. If you are interested in online trading or if you are practicing it then you must take benefit from some communities. You can join communities like stock community and online trading community.

These communities can make your trading easy and you can take good decisions also. You can enjoy a lot of services and advices also through these online services. These services are solving a lot of problems of people who are involved in online trading. Its various services regarding finance and stock trading are utilized which are making the investment easy which is lessening the involved risk. Those who are interested in buying and selling stock and securities can get help from stock communities. The best part of such networking is that if you want to do discussions before opting for a particular investment decision then here it becomes easy.

These communities are the right place to be in if you want to take good investment decision. A stock community is the best place for people involved in online trading. It can serve you in a nice manner as it encourages open discussions also that help a lot as new ideas evolve. You can get to know about those who have benefited from such ideas of online trading. A stock community encourages open discussions. These discussions can remove any confusion regarding the business credibility of a particular stock option. On a stock community you can get to have precious advices and you can also post a question to know some new thing about the business of online trading.

So, a stock community is the source of information about stock trading and you can get great benefit here.

Learning Forex Trading Facts

Forex trading market is the main bank spot market for currency. It is meant as the networks of the banks, bounds to run all the working days electronically. We also say it a market of the absolute competition that is affected by any modification made by the banks.

Ten years back, forex trading confronted high obstacles as only large institutes and firms had access to the system and tools essential for the successful trade dealing in the forex market. In this digital age, with the advancement of the technology, any trader or investor can easily start this business in any online environment. You should be aware of the risks involved in the forex trading market as it is full of crocodiles. You may lose your earned money as well. It is very important to learn forex trading when you have the intention to participate in big trading game. You should keep in mind the fact that forex market of foreign exchange marker is not for the beginners. You should brush up your skills when you start forex trading.

Source to learn forex trading:

Internet is the main source of learning forex trading easily where you will find right resources and reviews about forex trading. You should stick to following points when you start your program of learning forex trading.

· Learn about the basics of the FX quotes and strategies for market move.

· Learn about a simple way of developing forex trading strategy with the support of proper money management system.

· Test of trading strategy with the help of trading simulator.

· Start trading program with mini FX account and learn the process of wining or loosing money.

Many people fail in the forex trading because they are unable to control their driving emotions greed and fear. This trading game works on the chance rule just like a flipping of coin gives you 50 percent chance it will be either tail or head.

Why we prefer fox trading:

People prefer to use forex trading instead of the stocks. Forex trading is available 24 hours a day. You do not need to face any type of restrictions when you are dealing in forex trading. Traders have the advantage of earning huge amount of money as forex trading deal in pairs; you can get comprehensive profit at the rise and fall of the single currency of the country.

Traders can easily invest any amount of money at any time as they do not need to wait at the opening of the market. Forex trading also give you a high margin leverage that is impossible to get from stocks. In forex trading market leverage is the effective money making tool that may involve some risk as large number of people assume it. By reviewing above mentioned points, we can say that forex trading is the powerful tool to earn high amount of money in the foreign currency market.

Best New Forex Trading System

Forex Trading System is extremely popular these days since the stock markets are crashing and becoming extremely unpredictable and very hard to follow! Forex Trading System is a must have tool for any stock investor that wants to take stock trading to the new level with Forex Trading Software doing all the work automatically! There is no human intervention required with this automatic Forex Trading System that makes thousands trading stocks automatically! No matter how well or how poor the stock market is performing you will still be making money with this Forex Trading System as it makes all the tough descisions for you and works out when to buy and when to sell on complete autopilot!

You can get started with your own Forex Trading System today! You will get the forex system and all the guides and instructions to set it up and get it making you money in less than 20 minutes and all you have to do after is relax and sit back as this software buys and sells stocks automatically always insuring that you make a profit! I am currently using this Forex Trading System and making just over a hundreed dollars every day with only $1,000 invested in this system! It is absolutely amazing and makes several trades a day whenever it is good time to buy and sell to make you money! This Forex Trading System is a very small risk but as you know there are risks associated with stock market trading anyways but this software minimises the risks considerably!

This Forex Trading System is called Forex Funnel! As mentioned before this software has no risks or very minimal risks with its usage but you can set up a completely NO Risk demo account to try it out and see the results before you invest more money! You Don't need any stock trading experience what soever because this software will do all the trading for you, all you have to do is fuel it up with money and collect the profits after every day of trading! You may interact with the forex funnel and make the trading descisions yourself also if you like, reffering to graphs and information generated by this amazing Forex Trading System! Don't Miss Out on this amazing opportunity, i want you to go and try this software to realise the potentials of making money on autopilot for yourself! No matter what you are doing, if you are at your day job,on holiday,or sleeping you will be making money automatically with this system! Visit the website today and see the real testimonials and an example that went from $50,000 to $462,000 in only four years!

What to Take Note When Buying Forex Trading Software

Online forex trading has become most common in today's world. Most people know there is the potential to earn a lot of money in forex. Conversely, the risks are also higher. However, being fundamentally sound in forex principles and technical indicators goes a long way in improving the odds of being winning in forex.

The same goes for forex software. This is especially important for part time investors who can't afford to monitor the forex market all day. There are many forex software products available in the market today.

Some are online forex trading based platform while others are software which you can download to your computer. Nevertheless, an internet connection is almost always required. Most forex software will often have a demo version so users can try out before buying.

If possible, look for forex software that offers a trial version or have a money back guarantee. Here are some points to consider when purchasing forex software.

1. Forex Software Security

Security of online Forex trading software is very important, most software use 128 bit SSl encryption standard which helps in preventing hackers from accessing the personal details and account balance.

2. Technical Support

Most forex software companies provide 24 hour technical support for their software. They help in 24 hour maintenance and ensure quality for the user; immediate response is given to end users if anything goes wrong.

The security system is designed to restrict unauthorized access and maintains good back up facility every day. This facility helps to restore any bad issues easily. Reliability Obviously, it is important that the forex software is reliable.

That is why a trial forex software is important in that it allows you to test the software in your environment to make sure it does not hang or has slow performance on your computer. You should also enquire about the uptime.

Choose forex software that have at least 95% uptime. This is especially critical since forex trading is precise and requires you to stop and bid trades at the exact moment to make profits.

10% Of Traders Go Bankrupt

I was thinking about an article I read some time ago that 90% of traders who ever trade lose their account and that 10% actually go bankrupt. If the first number doesn't scare you then the second definitely should.

Why is it then that there is such a large number of traders failing? It is not because they are stupid; in fact most traders have an above average IQ and are above average in most categories such as education and income. So why do they fail?

Lack of trading education!

By education I don't just mean learning how RSI works or drawing lines on a chart. I mean thoroughly educating yourself in all aspects of your chosen profession. Educating yourself on the correct psychological approach to the market! Educating yourself in the correct risk management techniques relative to your account size. Educating yourself in the correct entry and exit
methods for the trading style that suits you.

This, my friend, is where I hope to be of some help. I don't have all the answers nor do I profess to be some kind of guru but I will do my best to point you in the right direction.

Common Misconceptions Of New Traders

They think they can trade consistently with an 80% accuracy.
They think they can turn $1000 into $100,000 in six months.
They think they can predict turning points in their given
markets to within minutes.
They think they can buy a system that is 100% accurate.
They think they will quit their jobs and make a living full
time after a few months of trading.
What's the reason that so many new traders believe that trading is an easy way to make big profits? Propaganda!

We are continually bombarded in magazines, emails and the general media with claims of making astronomical amounts, just by applying the vendor's latest method or system.

Don't get me wrong, there is good stuff out there but the vast majority is not worth the price you pay. At www.surefire-trading.com I also recommend products but I have at least read the ebooks or courses and think they have some value to my subscribers and they all have a refund guarantee.

Fundamentals Of Trading

The way you approach the market psychologically has as much to do with your success as any trading plan.

Risk management is crucial if you want to have any hope of becoming a successful trader.

Matching a method of trading with your personality is the only way you will ever feel comfortable in the markets.

An adequately funded account is necessary - not only to be able to take the trades you want, but also so you don't feel every trade is a live or die situation.

The journey to the road of successful trading will make you confront your deepest fears. Your armor on this journey will be confidence, knowledge and belief in yourself that you can achieve your dreams.

Never, equate your success or failure in the markets with who you are as a person!

The Flaw In Our Emotions

As humans we have a natural tendency to try and influence our surroundings and events we take part in. This is one reason we, as a species, have succeeded but it is also one of the fundamental flaws we all have when trying to achieve success as a traders.

As traders we have to realize we have no control over the market and if we accept that then we have to accept that we can not influence the direction of the market.

The problem of course is we have a tendency to try and succeed and when inevitable losses come, it is easy to let those losses effect us emotionally. Becoming euphoric when you hit a winning streak is almost as detrimental as becoming depressed when you have a string of losses.

We as traders have to try and achieve the state of impartiality. We have to accept that we will have losses as readily as we will have wins. Reaching the stage where you can comfortably accept loss in the knowledge that your method of trading will produce profits in the longer term is the state we have to aspire to.

Risk Management

Whenever I think of risk management I always think of an article I read on 925 CTA programs between 1974-1995. It essentially confirmed what I have long held to be true. To summarize the report, of all the CTA's who managed funds, the most consistently profitable were the ones with the best risk management systems.

To trade successfully you have to take a long look at yourself. Ask and answer the following questions.

How much equity do I need to start? How much should I risk on any one trade? Am I undercapitalized?

During the course of these lessons I will do my best to help answer these and other questions.

Entry And Exit

As a trader you will probably fall into two main categories, traders who like to trade the breakout and traders who like to join the trend once established. We could also add congestion traders, reversal type traders and mechanical signal traders but for the vast majority of traders you are going to fall into one of the two categories.

If you are a trend trader, you like to define a trend and then find a way in. This may be with the aid of fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages, Gann or one of the other many indicators available today. Your goal is to enter the trend as early as possible with the least amount of risk.

Breakout traders like to enter the market on the breakout of a previously identified range. This may be support/resistance areas, rectangles, triangles or one of the many other chart patterns. The secret to this type of trading is to determine a valid break.

In future lessons we shall begin to look at the more technical side of trading and how you can apply technical analysis to the markets to increase your probability of success.

Conclusion

During this lesson I have tried to give you a glimpse into the world of trading. I have also taken a slightly negative stance, as I don't want you to get unrealistic expectations of what to expect.

On the more positive side, trading is a fascinating world, which will allow you to really exercise your brain. There is no other arena where you get to play with some of the best minds in the world on a level playing field.

Once mastered, if you can ever use that term then the possibilities are endless. Hopefully I can help you achieve your goals

The Money Management Exit

In 'Importance of Exits' we emphasized the importance of exits in general and pointed out that it is the exits and not the entries which actually determine the outcome of our trades. Now that we have established the importance of exits we will be more specific and write about various types of exits. Probably the simplest and most critical exit is the money management exit or the classic "stop loss". This is the exit that protects our trading capital and prevents ruin.

To trade futures and other leveraged investments without a money management stop is certain ruin. Well-known trader and author Victor Niederhoffer lost tens of millions of dollars of his client's money when he traded his fund down to zero and some twenty-million beyond. No surprise there. The inevitable outcome of an investment with this ill-fated trader was clearly determined years ago when Niederhoffer wrote:

"I have never used stops, even to bail myself out. Somehow, having a fixed rule to exit provides my adversaries too great an advantage. " - Victor Niederhoffer, from "The Education of a Speculator", page 376 Niederhoffer's demise was no surprise to industry professionals. The only speculation was on how long it would take for him to go bust. To his credit, he lasted longer than was generally expected. Niederhoffer's paranoia about money management stops is not uncommon among naive beginners but it is an attitude that is rarely seen among seasoned professionals. The first priority in trading must always be to preserve our trading capital from the risk of catastrophic ruin. Everything else becomes secondary to this objective.

Note carefully how we have stated this goal. We did not say that our goal was to eliminate or reduce the risk of loss. Reasonable losses are an integral part of the trading process. Good traders accept losses as a cost of doing business. In fact I have observed that good traders probably take more losses than bad traders do. The critical issue in this discussion is the size of the losses that are acceptable. Catastrophic losses must be avoided at all costs and these losses are easily avoided by always employing a simple money management stop.

Niederhoffer mistakenly assumed that he was such a good trader that he could violate the cardinal rule of trading and not use money management stops. The truth is that good traders actually need money management stops more than bad traders do. Bad traders are going to fail very quickly whether they use money management stops or not while good traders will survive and prosper indefinitely. The better and longer you trade the more likely that you will eventually encounter a potentially catastrophic event.

The money management stop commits a trader to a pre-defined loss point that a trader can accept and the stop will allow him to exit a losing trade unemotionally. The trader who uses a money management stop knows from the outset that he can only give the trade a limited amount of room to move against him, and after that, he will cut his losses by exiting the trade according to his plan. This is a tremendous psychological advantage. Having a fixed point to exit a trade with a loss removes a great deal of stress in dealing with any losing position. The trader with his stop in place always knows exactly when he has to exit and avoids the pain of having to watch the loss grow larger and larger day after day.

This psychological advantage of money management stops also helps the trader before he takes a trade. Suppose the system called for us to take a trade in a specific market tomorrow, and we had an unknown and unlimited potential for loss. No knowledgeable trader would be willing to take such a trade. However, if you have a money management stop and know exactly what the worst loss could be beforehand, it is psychologically much easier to pull the trigger and confidently enter that trade. We already know and are prepared for the worse case scenario and we have determined that the amount of risk is acceptable to us. Money management stops give the trader the benefit of a worst loss estimate on any trade. This knowledge gives us the confidence to enter the trade and the psychological preparation to accept the loss should it occur. Of course money management stops may not always predict the exact amount of the worst loss, since markets can sometimes gap against the position and cause a much larger loss than planned. However in most cases the money management stop is a reasonable indication of the worst loss likely in a trade.

Over the course of this series of articles about exits we will describe a few of the basic money management stops that all traders should be familiar with. We will describe the basic Dollar Stop in this Bulletin and describe other recommended Money Management stops in subsequent bulletins.

The Dollar Stop: The simplest money management stop is a stop that is positioned a fixed dollar amount away from the entry price of a trade. Dollar stops are easy to implement and most trading software allow for easy incorporation of dollar stops into any trading system. Simple as this may sound, there are incorrect and correct ways to use a dollar stop in your systems.

The incorrect way to use dollar stops is to figure the maximum amount you can afford to lose in the trade, and then set the dollar stop accordingly. Unfortunately, the market does not make adverse price movements based on how much money you can afford to lose.

The correct way to set dollar stops is to use market characteristics and system testing statistics to determine its placement. For instance, dollar stops should not be placed too close to the markets because random price movement will cause the trade to be stopped out prematurely. Neither should dollar stops be placed too far away from the market, since that means you are willing to take a much larger loss than is necessary. In our experience, dollar stops should be placed based on some volatility measure of the market. For instance, if the average daily range of a market is $1,000, it is recommended that the dollar stop on that market should be at least $1,000 if not more. This amount should keep the stop out of the random price movements while maintaining its function of capital preservation. Again, it must be stressed that adequate system testing and analysis must precede the implementation of any dollar stop to ensure proper performance.

It is important to understand the volatility characteristics of the market you are trading and not to blindly use a fixed dollar stop for all markets, nor even for a single market if that market has changing volatility characteristics. The challenge then is to develop money management stops that are adaptive to current market volatility conditions.

Fibonacci Trading Techniques

First, a few words about Fibonacci himself…

Leonardo Pisano (nickname Fibonacci) was a mathematician, born in 1170, in Pisa (now Italy). His father was Guilielmo, of the Bonacci family. His father was a diplomat, as a result Fibonacci was educated in North Africa, where he learned "accounting" and "mathematics".

Fibonacci also contributed to the science of numbers, and introduced the "Fibonacci sequence"

The Fibonacci sequence is the sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, introduced in his work "Liber abaci" in a problem involving the growth of a population of rabbits.

Aside from this sequence of number where every next number is the sum of the proceeding two, 0, 1 (0+1), 2 (1+1), 3 (2+1), 5 (3+2), 8 (5+3), 13 (8+5), etc.

There are the "Fibonacci ratios".. By comparing the relationship between each number, and each alternate number, and even each number to the one four places to the right, we arrive at some fairly consistent ratios.. The important ones are .236, 50, .382, .618, .764, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and for good measure we include 1.00 ..

It turns out that the ratios are mathematical principles prevalent in nature around us, and is also in man-made objects. There are many interesting, entertaining, and poetic observations about Fibonacci numbers and ratios in the universe (see the reference section below). Fibonacci numbers appear in ancient buildings, in plants, planets, molecules, the dimensions of human bodies, and of course snails… But of what use is all that to the lowly trader?

What really interests you, the application of Fibonacci techniques in the trading environment..

Traders usually study charts! Fibonacci ratios may be applied to the Price scale, and also to the time scale of charts. I study the price scale. My focus here will be on the price scale for now, perhaps in the future I'll add some time-scale studies.

Prices never move in a straight line. Look at any chart, you will see many wiggles, as price advances and retraces.. Stocks, Futures, Forex, all instruments which are liquid, will often retrace in Fibonacci proportions, and advance in Fibonacci proportions. Not always, and not precisely to the penny. But very often, and reasonably close! This happens often enough that profitable trades can result. I will show you some examples below.

I used Fibonacci ratios with a few simple indicators to help determine probable price turning points, optimum entry, exit and stop-loss levels. My complete techniques are available in on-line video seminars, in-person seminars, and via my real-time on-line chat facility. For more details, see the following web page: http://www.surefire-trading.com/fibmaster.html

The application of Fibonacci to trading can be very complex, and take much time and experience to perfect. Many traders enjoy making the process as difficult and as complex as they can tolerate.. I do the opposite, I try to simplify, try to bring clarity.

Fibonacci example - Microsoft Weekly chart.
This lesson demonstrates a very basic way to use Fibonacci levels. You just read about Fibonacci ratios. We will use just one of those ratios for now, the .382 Fibonacci ratio. In this chart MSFT made a high of (approximately) $59.97 in December of 1999. After that, it moved down to make a low of $30.19 in May of 2000.

The down move was $29.78 (59.97-30.19), quite a substantial amount.

Projecting from that low in May, and using a Fibonacci ratio, we can calculate 29.78*.382=$11.37 . So 38.2% of 29.78 is 11.37 . If MSFT were to rally 38.2% of the down-move it would reach $41.57 (11.37+30.20). I'm using rounded numbers in my calculations, the chart above calculates it to be $41.564, we don't need that degree of accuracy!

Several weeks later, MSFT rallied and resisted right near that .382 Fibonacci level !!

So we were able to predict a future probable turning point (after the low of May 2000), using the Fibonacci ratio of .382!! If only it were always so easy.

The steps involved are:

1. Calculate the total value of a significant price-move (high to low, or vice-versa).
2. Calculate a Fibonacci retracement (in this case .382) of the prior move.
3. Look for price to confirm, by resisting (or support in an up-move) near that predicted retracement area.

Fibonacci example - Microsoft Daily chart.
This chart shows how a different Fibonacci level (61.8%) predicted resistance and a market turn.

Notice how the market behaved at the .382 level (30.80 area). Initially the market spiked through, then fell back to that level (late October). We cannot expect a chart to retrace at every Fib level. We can expect some support/resistance as buyers/sellers enter the market at these levels, but we can't always predict whether the market will actually turn at any particular level. Fibonacci techniques are used to alert you to a possible trade, if that price level does cause support or resistance. These techniques are not used as a trigger for entry. Other indicators are used in conjunction with Fibonacci studies to provide higher-probability entries..

As mentioned before, there are several Fib levels, .236, 50, .382, .618, .764, 1.382, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and 1.00 .. So there are several places to look for a market turn. They can be calculated in advance, but trading blindly at a fib level can be dangerous, because you never know for certain (in advance) whether the market will turn at any particular Fib level. I use other indicators to help overcome that problem, click here to learn how to determine which Fib ratio is likely to be strong enough to turn the market.

Important notes from this lesson:

1. There are several Fib levels.
2. It takes some skill to determine which Fib level is likely to cause the market to turn.
3. There are some techniques to help you determine where a market is more likely to turn.
4. Do not blindly anticipate a market turn at a Fib level.

More Fibonacci examples.

QQQ Weekly chart with a deep retracement to .618 and a weak attempt to rally after that. However, consider the daily chart and intraday traders. they would have enjoyed the rally from $75 to $100, after going long from a support level that could have been predicted in March!

QQQ daily chart. Multiple Fib levels timing the market perfectly in 3 consecutive waves up!

Intraday chart, QQQ 30-minute. Notice the two market Fib retracements (there are others in this chart too).. The rally from 29.26 stopped at 31.10, then it supported **twice** at 30.39, for two good scalps. The next highlighted Fib support is at a retracement of .618 from the move up 30.47 to 32.49 .. Both of these support levels were predictable before the market supported there.. Hint:--- See how the rally continued after the shallow retracement to 30.39 ... See how the rally after the deeper retracement to .618 near 31.25 was a weaker rally.. This is common, a deeper retracement often foretells a weaker rally... See the next lesson in the table of contents for more on these advanced Fibonacci trading principles.

Another intraday chart, S&P 5-minute.. The first Fib retracement is on a bearish move, an opportunity to short. The second is bullish, with a long entry near 999.25 .. Note that popular charting software will calculate Fibonacci to rediculous precision, we don't need anything closer than one tick! Actually, you should allow some room don't expect precision every time. Allow the trade some room to develop, or you will be stopped out too often.

More Advanced - Microsoft Daily chart.
By now you're probably quite interested, perhaps applying all those Fibonacci ratios to many charts.. You should experiment with your own charts. As long as the instrument traded has a lot of liquidity (not a penny stock for example), you should start to see Fib support and resistance at work. You will start to notice that Fibonacci levels "work" sometimes and not others. Sometimes the trades are not profitable, or are less profitable than others. You need to develop the skills required to select better trades.
In this mini-lesson I want to show you how to evaluate price action based on which Fib levels it responds to, and how the market behaves immediately preceding the Fib support/resistance.

The chart below actually has many Fibonacci levels "performing well", providing support or resistance to the market. I want you to focus on the two that I have identified, for the purposes of this lesson.

The first up-move that I have identified topped out at $26.90, and then retraced 61.8% before supporting at that Fib level. There was a pause at the .382 level, but it was not sufficient to hold the market. Now look at the rally from the support level near .618, it rallied but did not exceed the prior high of 26.90 … As a general rule, a retracement to .618 or below indicates that the preceding up-move is losing steam. A shallow retracement which supports at .382 is more likely to rally beyond the prior high than one which has a deep retracement beyond .50 all the way to .618 ..

The impressive thrust from 22.55 up to 26.90 was negated by a quick move back to .618 at about 24.20, so a trader should not be too optimistic about a continuation of the initial up-thrust.

Similarly, the move up in June, from 23.50 to almost 26.50 would also not inspire much optimism for a huge rally above the high of 26.50 … In general a shallow support at .382 would indicate a probable rally beyond the prior high. However, if the up-move preceding the retracement was sluggish rather than thrusting, you also should temper your enthusiasm.

If the second rally which only retraced to .382 had the thrust of the first rally, it would be a more attractive trade!

These are not firm rules, instead they are used as a guide, to help you filter for better trades. Every Fib level is not equal, some are more attractive than others.

Important notes from this lesson:

1. Not all Fib levels are alike.
2. No technical study is perfect, you must develop the skills to filter out bad trades, and improve the odds of finding better trades.
3. Price action just before a Fib retracement can tell you something about the future.
4. Which Fib level causes the end of a retracement also can give a hint to future price action.
5. No technical study is perfect, you must develop the skills to filter out bad trades, and improve the odds of finding better trades.

You can learn more about Neal and his video course by clicking here.

Importance of Exits in Trading

The outcome of every trade is dependent on the exit. If we enter in a timely fashion and then exit poorly, the trade is likely to be a loss. If our entry happens to be poor but our exit is good we might still salvage a profit. The exits, not the entries, determine the outcome of our trades. This lesson about exits is easily demonstrated. Take any entry strategy and begin combining it with different exit strategies. You will quickly see that we can change the results dramatically by making only minor adjustments to the exits. In fact it becomes nearly impossible to tell if an entry is any good because the results are so exit dependent. Bad exits can make a good entry look bad and good exits can make a bad entry look good. When testing the validity of an entry method it is best to begin by simply exiting the trades after a number of bars. If you do anything more creative than this simple exit you will find that you are really testing your exits, not your entries. If you change the exits while attempting to test an entry strategy the results will vary so much depending on the exits selected that you will find that you can not make any valid assumptions about the reliability of the entry. When combined with the right exit the entry strategy looks great. When combined with the wrong exit the same entry looks terrible.

The purpose of an entry is to get the trade started in the right direction. To test the effectiveness of an entry we simply measure what percentage of the time it gets our trade started in the right direction. For example if we have entry "A" that has 60% winning trades after five days it is better than an entry "B" that has only 45% winners after five days.

You will notice that we made no comparison of risk or profitability in picking the best entry. What if entry "A" lost money and entry "B" made money? Is entry "A" still better? The answer is "Yes" because the purpose of an entry is merely to get the trade started in the right direction. After that everything else is dependent on the exits. Entry "B" just happened to make more money because of the particular exit we selected for the test. We can easily adjust our exits and we will find that entry "A" will consistently make more money than entry "B" because it gets the trades started in the right direction more often. To maximize our profit we need to combine the right entry with the right exit. In our book, Computer Analysis of the Futures Market, we tell an amusing anecdote about a trader who seemed a bit loony because he used a Coke bottle with a broken radio antennae sticking out of it to receive trading advice from other planets. This advice, like most trading advice, was only related to the entries. When the voice from the Coke bottle told him to enter a trade he would come back to my desk and want to put the trade on right away saying something like: "They are buying soy beans on Mars, buy some beans for me".

The other traders sitting around the board room would overhear these frantic orders and became quite interested in this strange trading advice. Naturally they were quick to make fun of the trader when he was losing but they didn't have much to say when he was winning. The trader with the Coke bottle eventually learned that to avoid ridicule he had to take his losses quickly and hold on to his winners as long as possible. His trading steadily improved and he wound up being a surprisingly good trader. Obviously, his reliance on trading advice from other planets had nothing to do with his success. His entries were no better or worse than random but he had learned to be very good at his exits.

We should do the same.

Note: If you haven't read it recently, now would be a good time to review Article- 'Take Control' which deals with the issue of "control". Controlling exits is much more difficult than entries.

Taking Control in Trade Exchange

In my mind, control is an important issue that has a great deal to do with understanding the process of trading and doing it successfully. There many parts of the trading process where exercising control is relatively easy and other parts of the process where control is much more difficult. For example, the entry into a trade is a point where we are very much in control. We set the conditions and the market must meet our conditions or we will simply refuse to participate. This is clearly the point in the trading process where we can exercise maximum control.

I can recall attending some lectures many years ago by George Lane (of stochastic indicator fame) when he revealed to the audience a list of items that he wanted to see before he entered a trade. His pre-entry checklist had twenty-seven conditions on it. Being a skeptic of complex trading strategies I don't recall what any of these twenty seven items were except I'm sure at least one of them was the stochastic indicator. At the point of carefully reviewing his checklist George was very much in control of the situation and if the market didn't do exactly what he wanted he didn't trade.

As I often point out in my lectures, entries are the easy part of trading. This is because each of us has maximum control at this point. We can exercise as much or as little control as we like. George Lane can require every one of his twenty-seven criteria and I can require my usual two setups and a trigger condition. However the control situation changes drastically once we enter the trade. Our ability to control all the elements of the trade now becomes much more difficult and far from absolute. Once we enter a futures trade we know that we must exit that trade within a limited period of time or we are going to be in trouble because the contract will expire. Even stock traders who don't need to be concerned about expiring contracts must exit their positions correctly if they wish to maximize their profits. Exits are much more difficult than entries because we can not simply reverse the entry process and require that the market do thus and such. Once we are in the trade George Lane and I can both throw our lists out the window because we can no longer dictate our terms to the market. The market is now in control and we must be prepared to react to whatever the market does. The market can do anything it wants once we have entered our trade and we can be assured that the market doesn't care what conditions might be on our list or what our preferences might be. Once we enter the trade we are at the mercy of the market the market operates according to its own list and that list of possibilities is much larger than George Lane's meager list of twenty-seven items. The market's options are limitless. It can do anything it wants whenever it wants and somehow we must be prepared to deal with it. Where is our control now? As we hold our trade we must be prepared for big moves against us and big moves in our favor. (Surprisingly the big moves against us are much easier to deal with than the moves in our favor. We will talk more about this in just a minute.) Among the market's limitless possibilities are gaps, reversals, limit moves, whipsaws, and perhaps worst of all, boring sideways action that makes us wish we were trading something else. The market may present us with inside days, outside days, reversal days, key reversal days, high volume days, low volume days, expanding ranges, contracting ranges, acceleration, and deceleration. We can be faced with days that are so big that the chart looks like a propeller on the end of a stick or days that are so small they just look like dots.

Because we have to be prepared for all this and more, it should be no wonder
that our exit strategies are often much more complex than our entry strategies. We need to have solutions ready for any problem the market might send our way. As I mentioned earlier, the losses are rarely the problem because we can control those by simply setting a loss point and closing out the trade if the loss point is hit. Here again we are facing an issue of control and it is comforting to know that we do have a great deal of control over our losses. If we want to design a system where the average loss is $487.50 it wouldn't be difficult. We can absolutely control the size of our losses and we must be certain that we do.

All of our exit strategies have to be carefully planned to be certain that we control what can be controlled. First we must recognize and understand what can be controlled and then we must make certain that we exercise whatever control we have. It may be comforting to know that we can strictly control losses but it is extremely discomforting to realize that we have very little control of our profits. If we have a $500 profit, how do we make it become a $1000 profit? Unfortunately holding on to the trade longer gives us no assurance that we will eventually have a $1,000 profit.

In this instance we have very little control but let's see what we can do with the control that we do have. Although the amount of profits can not be controlled in the sense of our somehow forcing them to be larger, they can be controlled in the sense that we don't have to let them become smaller or turn into losses. Those of you who have purchased any of our systems will appreciate that locking in open profits at various levels is important to the success of our trading strategies. You will notice that in the "25 X 25" Bond System (free on the web site) we use a very tight channel to help lock in profits after twenty-five days or after five Average True Ranges of profit. We can't control the market and force it to give us five ATRs of profit, but if it does we can make sure that we keep most of it. Protecting our open profits is definitely within our control.

When conceptualizing a new trading system and when going through the design
and testing routine, be alert to issues of control. Look for what you can control and make sure that you are controlling it to your benefit. Look at what you can not control and as a minimum have some plan that will minimize any possible damage. Thinking about control will make you a better trader and implementing control will make your systems trade better.

Why We Use Multiple Exits

A recent message from one of our members questioned our use of multiple exits and the fact that the exits in a particular system were very complex and would sometimes move closer to the prices and then suddenly move farther away. The member questioned whether the exits were working properly and wondered about the logic of having so many different exit strategies operating within one system. I sent the member a brief reply and promised to write a Bulletin that explained our philosophy and procedures about the use of multiple exits in more detail.

When we develop trading systems the entry is usually just a few lines of code but the exit strategies and coding are often very complex. We may have a system with only one very simple entry method and that system may have a dozen or more exit strategies. The reason for devoting so much effort and attention to achieving accurate exits is that over our many years of trading we have come to appreciate both the importance and the difficulty of accurate exits.

Entries are easy. Before we enter any trade we know exactly what has occurred up to that point and if those conditions and events are satisfactory according to the rules of our system we can generate a valid entry signal. Entries are easy because we are able to set all the conditions and the market must conform to our rules or nothing happens. However, once we have entered a trade anything can happen. Now that we are in the market the possible scenarios for what might happen to our open position are endless. It would be extremely naïve to expect to hope to efficiently deal with all possible trading events with only one or two simple exit strategies. However, that seems to be the common practice and, in fact, many popular trading systems simply reverse the entry rules to generate their exits.

We believe that good exits require a great deal of planning and foresight and that simple exits will not be nearly as efficient as a series of well planned exits that allow for a multitude of possibilities. Our exit strategies need to accomplish a series of critical tasks. We want to protect our capital against any catastrophic losses so we need a dependable money management exit that limits the size of our loss without getting whipsawed. Then if the trade is working in our favor we would like to move the exit closer so that the risk to our capital is reduced or eliminated. As soon as possible we need to have a "breakeven" exit in place that prevents our profitable trade from turning into a loss.

In most of our systems, our goal is to maximize the size of our profit on each trade so we do not simply take a small profit once we see it. This goal means that we need to implement an exit strategy that protects a portion of our small profit while allowing the trade to have the opportunity to become a much bigger profit. If the trade went in our favor every day the exits could be greatly simplified but unfortunately that is not the way markets typically trade. We have to allow room for some minor fluctuations on a day to day basis. In order to facilitate our objective of maximizing the profit of each trade, in some cases we may decide to move our exit point farther away to avoid getting stopped out prematurely. For example, lets look at our Yo Yo exit that is based on the theory that we never want to stay in a position after a severe one-day move against us. (See Bulletin number 14 for an explanation of the Yo Yo exit.)

This highly efficient exit is based on measuring the amount of price movement from the previous day's close. For example we may want to exit immediately if the adverse price movement reaches one and a half Average True Ranges from the previous close. This volatility-based exit will move away indefinitely as the result of a series of adverse closing prices caused by days where the price moved against us but our volatility trigger was never quite reached. Obviously an exit that can move away from prices indefinitely is no use at all in limiting the size of our losses so the Yo Yo exit must always be used in conjunction with other exit strategies that do not move away. Now that we have implemented the Yo Yo exit to protect our trade from a severe one-day reversal in direction, we have still not addressed the question of taking profits. So far, we have exits in place to protect from large losses, to lock in a break-even point and to get us out on a sudden trend reversal but we still have not addressed the important issue of taking some profits on the trade.

We like to shoot for big profits and the bigger the profits become the closer we like to protect them. This strategy calls for multiple profit-taking exits. If we have a $1,000 profit we might want to protect 50% of it and be willing to give back $500 of our open profit. We can place an exit at $500 above our entry price. This will allow us to hold the position in the hope that the profit will grow. However if we have a $10,000 open profit I'm sure we wouldn't want to give back 50% of that. Also, let's hope that our exit stop is not still sitting back there at $500 above our entry price. For best results our exits need to adjust at various levels of profitability.

Many traders have asked us about the robustness of a system that has a many exit rules. The general perception is that a system with fewer rules is likely to be more robust. However I would disagree with applying that common belief without careful thought. Look at the exits in these two over-simplified systems:

System A:
Use a $1500 money management stop. (Limits loss to $1500.)
When profit reaches $5,000, exit with a stop at entry plus $4500.


System B:
Use a $1500 money management stop. (Limits loss to $1500.00)
When profit reaches $1,000, exit with a stop at entry price.
When profit reaches $2,000, exit with a stop at entry plus $1,250.
When profit reaches $3,500, exit with a stop at entry plus $2,500.
When profit reaches $5,000, exit with a stop at entry plus $4500.
When profit is greater than $7,500 exit with a stop at the previous day's low.

Some system traders might argue that since system A has fewer rules it should be more robust (most likely to work in the future.) We would suggest that system B is much more likely to work in the future even though it has more rules. System A is not going to make any money at all if the open profit never reaches $5,000. Once the profit exceeds $5,000 the only exit is at the $4,500 level. System A is very limited in what it is prepared for. It either makes $4,500 or it loses $1500.

As you can see, system B is obviously prepared for many more possibilities. It is conceivable (but not likely) that system A may somehow produce better test results on a historical basis because of an accidental (or intentional) curve fit. However, we would much rather trade our real money with system B. Simpler is not always better when it comes to exit planning