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Thursday, December 31, 2009

Low Risk Forex Trading

Thursday, December 31, 2009
As a trader, getting stopped out is just part of the cost of doing business. I find that this is a seldom addressed area in the arena of today's internet driven "get rich overnight trading the FOREX" group. But in fact, it should be the first thing one considers when evaluating a trading program.
I am a firm believer in the "KISS" principle. Keep it simple s*&%id.
Stop Placement 101:
You will have to use very large stops (greater risk) when trading a trend following technique. The larger the profit target, so too is the larger the stop that needs to be used. When trading a scalping technique you can use a very small stop (less risk). The smaller the profit target, the tighter the stop.
Why? Because if you are attempting to go for a larger profit target, you are going to be in a trade for a longer period of time. In order to overcome the standard pullbacks and price fluctuations that occur when one stays in a trade for an extended period of time, you need a larger stop. This style of trading is very common place in markets where the directional bias is very consistent.
One of the key characteristics of the FOREX market that is different than other markets is that the directional bias is constantly shifting. Meaning, in one 3 hour period you may be looking for a long trade and in the next 3 hour period you may be looking for a short trade on the very same currency pair. What this means to the trader who is attempting to trade a trend-following technique in the FOREX is that he will need to use very large stops, typically a minimum of 100 pips or more in most cases.
Once again, the reason for this is because of the constant shift in the directional bias. This is why many perceive the FOREX to be a "risky" market to trade.
The FOREX is a great market to trade, but it is just not a good market to trade a trend-following technique if you cannot handle the large stops and the countless hours that you are stuck in a trade waiting for the bias to shift back in your favor.
The FOREX market is the perfect market to trade on an intra-day basis. You can use a tight stop and you do not have to hold on to a trade for countless hours. A side benefit of trading these smaller intra-day moves is that it is less taxing emotionally.
One of the benefits of learning to trade a scalping methodology is you use a 10 pip stop, this includes transaction cost. That is low risk trading.
In any other business endeavor, if I asked you would you prefer to earn $500 in 30 minutes or 12-14 hours, the answer would be obvious. But for some reason traders feel that there is a benefit to holding on to a trade for extended periods of time. Trend followers risk more and work harder to earn money trading the FOREX. Scalpers can earn the same or more than trend followers with less risk and only committing a fraction of the time to trade.
Here is another way to look at it. Let's look at a currency pair that has a daily trading range of 75 pips. What is easier? Learning to consistently find 10-20 pips of profit in a consistent 75 pip range or to find the entire 75 pips? Which is less work? Once again, the answer is obvious.
Remember, one 5 lot net 10 pip trade equals $500 in profit and typically can be realized in 30 minutes or less.

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