Wave Function

Every wave serves one of two functions: action or reaction. Specifically, a wave may either advance the cause of the wave of one larger degree or interrupt it. The function of a wave is determined by its relative direction. An actionary or trend wave is any wave that trends in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree of which it is a part. A reactionary or countertrend wave is any wave that trends in the direction opposite to that of the wave of one larger degree of which it is part. Actionary waves are labeled with odd numbers and letters. Reactionary waves are labeled with even numbers and letters.
All reactionary waves develop in corrective mode. If all actionary waves developed in motive mode, then there would be no need for different terms. Indeed, most actionary waves do subdivide into five waves. However, as the following sections reveal, a few actionary waves develop in corrective mode, i.e., they subdivide into three waves or a variation thereof. A detailed knowledge of pattern construction is required before one can draw the distinction between actionary function and motive mode, which in the underlying model introduced so far are indistinct. A thorough understanding of the forms detailed in the next five lessons will clarify why we have introduced these terms to the Elliott Wave lexicon.

Degrees

When numbering and lettering waves, the scheme shown below is recommended to differentiate the degrees of waves in the stock market's progression: The most desirable form for a scientist is usually something like 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, etc., with subscripts denoting degree, but it's a nightmare to read such notations on a chart. The above table provides for rapid visual orientation. Charts may also use color as an effective device for differentiating degree. In Elliott's suggested terminology, the term "Cycle" is used as a name denoting a specific degree of wave and is not intended to imply a cycle in the typical sense. The same is true of the term "Primary," which in the past has been used loosely by Dow Theorists in phrases such as "primary swing" or "primary bull market." The specific terminology is not critical to the identification of relative degrees, and the authors have no argument with amending the terms, although out of habit we have become comfortable with Elliott's nomenclature. The precise identification of wave degree in "current time" application is occasionally one of the difficult aspects of the Wave Principle. Particularly at the start of a new wave, it can be difficult to decide what degree the initial smaller subdivisions are. The main reason for the difficulty is that wave degree is not based upon specific price or time lengths. Waves are dependent upon form, which is a function of both price and time. The degree of a form is determined by its size and position relative to component, adjacent and encompassing waves. This relativity is one of the aspects of the Wave Principle that make real time interpretation an intellectual challenge. Fortunately, the precise degree is usually irrelevant to successful forecasting since it is relative degree that matters most. Another challenging aspect of the Wave Principle is the variability of forms, as described through Lesson 9 of this course.

Wave Numbers

Number of Waves at Each Degree Impulse + Correction = Cycle Largest waves 1+1=2 Largest subdivisions 5+3=8 Next subdivisions 21+13=34 Next subdivisions 89+55=144 Number of Waves at Each Degree   Motive + Corrective  = Cycle   (Impulse)  (Zigzag)   Largest waves   1   1    2 Largest subdivisions    5   3    8 Next subdivisions   21 13   34 Next subdivisions   89 55 144 As with Figures 1-2 and 1-3 in Lesson 2, neither does Figure 1-4 imply finality. As before, the termination of yet another eight wave movement (five up and three down) completes a cycle that automatically becomes two subdivisions of the wave of next higher degree. As long as progress continues, the process of building to greater degrees continues. The reverse process of subdividing into lesser degrees apparently continues indefinitely as well. As far as we can determine, then, all waves both have and are component waves. Elliott himself never speculated on why the market's essential form was five waves to progress and three waves to regress. He simply noted that that was what was happening. Does the essential form have to be five waves and three waves? Think about it and you will realize that this is the minimum requirement for, and therefore the most efficient method of, achieving both fluctuation and progress in linear movement. One wave does not allow fluctuation. The fewest subdivisions to create fluctuation is three waves. Three waves in both directions does not allow progress. To progress in one direction despite periods of regress, movements in the main trend must be at least five waves, simply to cover more ground than the three waves and still contain fluctuation. While there could be more waves than that, the most efficient form of punctuated progress is 5-3, and nature typically follows the most efficient path. Variations on the Basic Theme The Wave Principle would be simple to apply if the basic theme described above were the complete description of market behavior. However, the real world, fortunately or unfortunately, is not so simple. From here through Lesson 15, we will fill out the description of how the market behaves in reality. That's what Elliott set out to describe, and he succeeded in doing so. WAVE DEGREE All waves may be categorized by relative size, or degree. Elliott discerned nine degrees of waves, from the smallest wiggle on an hourly chart to the largest wave he could assume existed from the data then available. He chose the names listed below to label these degrees, from largest to smallest: Grand Supercycle Supercycle Cycle Primary Intermediate Minor Minute Minuette Subminuette It is important to understand that these labels refer to specifically identifiable degrees of waves. For instance, whenwe refer to the U.S. stock market's rise from 1932, we speak of it as a Supercycle with subdivisions as follows: 1932-1937 the first wave of Cycle degree 1937-1942 the second wave of Cycle degree 1942-1966 the third wave of Cycle degree 1966-1974 the fourth wave of Cycle degree 1974-19?? the fifth wave of Cycle degree Cycle waves subdivide into Primary waves that subdivide into Intermediate waves that in turn subdivide into Minor and sub-Minor waves. By using this nomenclature, the analyst can identify precisely the position of a wave in the overall progression of the market, much as longitude and latitude are used to identify a geographical location. To say, "the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in Minute wave v of Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (3) of Primary wave [5] of Cycle wave I of Supercycle wave (V) of the current Grand Supercycle" is to identify a specific point along the progression of market history.

Essential Design

The market's compound construction is such that two waves of a particular degree subdivide into eight waves of the next lower degree, and those eight waves subdivide in exactly the same manner into thirty-four waves of the next lower degree. The Wave Principle, then, reflects the fact that waves of any degree in any series always subdivide and re-subdivide into waves of lesser degree and simultaneously are components of waves of higher degree. Thus, we can use Figure 1-3 to illustrate two waves, eight waves or thirty-four waves, depending upon the degree to which we are referring.
Now observe that within the corrective pattern illustrated as wave [2] in Figure 1-3, waves (A) and (C), which point downward, are each composed of five waves: 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5. Similarly, wave (B), which points upward, is composed of three waves: A, Band C. This construction discloses a crucial point: Motive waves do not always point upward, and corrective waves do not always point downward. The mode of a wave is determined not by its absolute direction but primarily by its relative direction. Aside from five specific exceptions, which will be discussed later in this course, waves divide in motive mode (five waves) when trending in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree of which it is a part, and in corrective mode (three waves or a variation) when trending in the opposite direction. Waves (A) and (C) are motive, trending in the same direction as wave [2]. Wave (B) is corrective because it corrects wave (A) and is countertrend to wave [2]. In summary, the essential underlying tendency of the Wave Principle is that action in the same direction as the one larger trend develops in five waves, while reaction against the one larger trend develops in three waves, at all degrees of trend.
*Note: For this course, all Primary degree numbers and letters normally denoted by circles are shown with brackets.

Essential Concepts

Figure 1-4

The phenomena of form, degree and relative direction are carried one step further in Figure 1-4. This illustration reflects the general principle that in any market cycle, waves will subdivide as shown in the following table (see section 1.6).

Wave Mode

There are two modes of wave development: motive and corrective. Motive waves have a five-wave structure, while corrective waves have a three-wave structure or a variation thereof. Motive mode is employed by both the five-wave pattern of Figure 1-1 and its same-directional components, i.e., waves 1, 3 and 5. Their structures are called "motive" because they powerfully impel the market. Corrective mode is employed by all counter-trend interruptions, which include waves 2 and 4 in Figure 1-1. Their structures are called "corrective" because each one appears as a response to the preceding motive wave yet accomplishes only a partial retracement, or "correction," of the progress it achieved. Thus, the two modes are fundamentally different, both in their roles and in their construction, as will be detailed throughout this course.
In his 1938 book, The Wave Principle, and again in a series of articles published in 1939 by Financial World magazine, R.N. Elliott pointed out that the stock market unfolds according to a basic rhythm or pattern of five waves up and three waves down to form a complete cycle of eight waves. The pattern of five waves up followed by three waves down is depicted in Figure 1-2.

Figure 1-2

One complete cycle consisting of eight waves, then, is made up of two distinct phases, the five-wave motive phase (also called a "five"), whose subwaves are denoted by numbers, and the three-wave corrective phase (also called a "three"), whose subwaves are denoted by letters. Just as wave 2 corrects wave 1 in Figure 1-1, the sequence A, B, C corrects the sequence 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in Figure 1-2.
When an initial eight-wave cycle such as shown in Figure 1-2 ends, a similar cycle ensues, which is then followed by another five-wave movement. This entire development produces a five-wave pattern of one degree (i.e., relative size) larger than the waves of which it is composed. The result is shown in Figure 1-3 up to the peak labeled (5).

Figure 1-3

This five-wave pattern of larger degree is then corrected by a three-wave pattern of the same degree, completing a larger full cycle, depicted as Figure 1-3.
As Figure 1-3 illustrates, each same-direction component of a motive wave (i.e., wave 1, 3 and 5), and each full-cycle component (i.e., waves 1 + 2, or waves 3 + 4) of a cycle, is a smaller version of itself.
It is neccessary to understand a crucial point: Figure 1-3 not only illustrates a larger version of Figure 1-2, it also illustrates Figure 1-2 itself, in greater detail. In Figure 1-2, each subwave 1, 3 and 5 is a motive wave that must subdivide into a "five," and each subwave 2 and 4 is a corrective wave that must subdivide into a "three." Waves (1) and (2) in Figure 1-3, if examined under a "microscope," would take the same form as waves [1]* and [2]. Regardless of degree, the form is constant. We can use Figure 1-3 to illustrate two waves, eight waves or thirty-four waves, depending upon the degree to which we are referring.
*Note: For this course, all Primary degree numbers and letters normally denoted by circles are shown with brackets.

Basic Tenets

Under the Wave Principle, every market decision is both produced by meaningful information and produces meaningful information. Each transaction, while at once an effect, enters the fabric of the market and, by communicating transactional data to investors, joins the chain of causes of others' behavior. This feedback loop is governed by man's social nature, and since he has such a nature, the process generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value.
Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the linear causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Nevertheless, its movement reflects a structured formal progression.
That progression unfolds in waves. Waves are patterns of directional movement. More specifically, a wave is any one of the patterns that naturally occur under the Wave Principle, as described in Lessons 1-9 of this course.

The Five Wave Pattern

In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure. Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which are labeled 2 and 4, as shown in Figure 1-1. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.

Figure 1-1

R.N. Elliott did not specifically state that there is only one overriding form, the "five wave" pattern, but that is undeniably the case. At any time, the market may be identified as being somewhere in the basic five wave pattern at the largest degree of trend. Because the five wave pattern is the overriding form of market progress, all other patterns are subsumed by it.

Short History

Although it is the best forecasting tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. Nevertheless, that description does impart an immense amount of knowledge about the market's position within the behavioral continuum and therefore about its probable ensuing path. The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis. This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market's general position and outlook. At times, its accuracy in identifying, and even anticipating, changes in direction is almost unbelievable. Many areas of mass human activity follow the Wave Principle, but the stock market is where it is most popularly applied. Indeed, the stock market considered alone is far more important than it seems to casual observers. The level of aggregate stock prices is a direct and immediate measure of the popular valuation of man's total productive capability. That this valuation has form is a fact of profound implications that will ultimately revolutionize the social sciences. That, however, is a discussion for another time.

R.N. Elliott's genius consisted of a wonderfully disciplined mental process, suited to studying charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its predecessors with such thoroughness and precision that he could construct a network of principles that covered all market action known to him up to the mid-1940s. At that time, with the Dow in the 100s, Elliott predicted a great bull market for the next several decades that would exceed all expectations at a time when most investors felt it impossible that the Dow could even better its 1929 peak. As we shall see, phenomenal stock market forecasts, some of pinpoint accuracy years in advance, have accompanied the history of the application of the Elliott Wave approach.

Elliott had theories regarding the origin and meaning of the patterns he discovered, which we will present and expand upon in Lessons 16-19. Until then, suffice it to say that the patterns described in Lessons 1-15 have stood the test of time.

Often one will hear several different interpretations of the market's Elliott Wave status, especially when cursory, off-the-cuff studies of the averages are made by latter day experts.

However, most uncertainties can be avoided by keeping charts on both arithmetic and semilogarithmic scale and by taking care to follow the rules and guidelines as laid down in this course. Welcome to the world of Elliott.

Rollovers in Forex

Even though the mighty US dominates many markets, most of Spot Forex is still traded through London in Great Britain. So for our next description we shall use London time. Most deals in Forex are done as Spot deals. Spot deals are nearly always due for settlement two business days later. This is referred to as the value date or delivery date. On that date the counter parties theoretically take delivery of the currency they have sold or bought.

In Spot FX the majority of the time the end of the business day is 21:59 (London time). Any positions still open at this time are automatically rolled over to the next business day, which again finishes at 21:59.

This is necessary to avoid the actual delivery of the currency. As Spot FX is predominantly speculative most of the time the traders never wish to actually take delivery of the currency. They will instruct the brokerage to always rollover their position.

Many of the brokers nowadays do this automatically and it will be in their policies and procedures. The act of rolling the currency pair over is known as tom.next, which stands for tomorrow and the next day.

Just to go over this again, your broker will automatically rollover your position unless you instruct him that you actually want delivery of the currency. Another point noting is that most leveraged accounts are unable to actually deliver the currency as there is insufficient capital there to cover the transaction.

Remember that if you are trading on margin, you have in effect got a loan from your broker for the amount you are trading. If you had a 1 lot position you broker has advanced you the $100,000 even though you did not actually have $100,000. The broker will normally charge you the interest differential between the two currencies if you rollover your position. This normally only happens if you have rolled over the position and not if you open and close the position within the same business day.

To calculate the broker's interest he will normally close your position at the end of the business day and again reopen a new position almost simultaneously. You open a 1 lot ($100,000) EUR/USD position on Monday 15th at 11:00 at an exchange rate of 0.9950.

During the day the rate fluctuates and at 22:00 the rate is 0.9975. The broker closes your position and reopens a new position with a different value date. The new position was opened at 0.9976 - a 1 pip difference. The 1 pip deference reflects the difference in interest rates between the US Dollar and the Euro.

In our example your are long Euro and short US Dollar. As the US Dollar in the example has a higher interest rate than the Euro you pay the premium of 1 pip.

Now the good news. If you had the reverse position and you were short Euros and long US Dollars you would gain the interest differential of 1 pip. If the first named currency has an overnight interest rate lower than the second currency then you will pay that interest differential if you bought that currency. If the first named currency has a higher interest rate than the second currency then you will gain the interest differential.

To simplify the above. If you are long (bought) a particular currency and that currency has a higher overnight interest rate you will gain. If you are short (sold) the currency with a higher overnight interest rate then you will lose the difference.

I would like to emphasise here that although we are going a little in-depth to explain how all this works, your broker will calculate all this for you. The purpose of this article is just to give you an overview of how the forex market works.

Essential Elements of a Successful Trader

Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.

You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.

However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.

Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.

Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.

The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.

For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.

The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).

So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.

Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?

If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.

Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus

Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.

To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.

Stop Placement

Stop placement is where we separate the kids from the adults.

Stop placement is the sole responsibility of you as the manager of your trading business. It is one buck that you cannot pass.

You are the end of the line when it comes to placing stops.

Let me show you why you, and only you, can decide where to place the stop. There are several considerations:

The size of your margin account has the greatest effect on stop placement. When you look at a trade and see where the stop should go, or where you would like it to go, you then have to look at the size of your margin account and determine whether or not you can even consider the trade.

Your comfort level. Although you may have sufficient margin to place the stop where you would like to, and although the stop is logical for the trade, you may not feel comfortable with the stop being so far away (or even so close), and so you will decide not to take the trade with the stop far away, or move the stop back if it appears too close.

Volatility. You must take into account market volatility when placing your protective stop. If a market that normally ticks two ticks at a time suddenly begins to tick five ticks at a time, you must certainly take the level of volatility into consideration. You may find out that you have to place your stop too far away for the size of your bank or your comfort level.

When you use mental stops, there are two other considerations which you must ponder when placing your protective stop. They are: Your speed in placing the order, and the speed at which your broker can place the order. Let's look at each.

The speed at which you can place the order. This depends upon how fast you think on your feet. There are three factors here: Perception, decision, and action. How long does it take you to perceive that NOW is the time to pick up the phone and place your stop in the market?  Or, NOW is the time to enter your stop via your electronic trading platform?
     

Then, once you make the perception, how long does it take you to decide to do something about what you have perceived? Are you quick to decide upon your perceptions? Finally, are you quick to act once you have made a decision?

Some of us are very quick in all three areas. Some of us are too slow to utilize mental stops. Only you can tell from the experiences you are having in the market whether or not you are quick enough to use mental stops.
         

by Joe Ross

ADX Has it's Limitations

(I'm referring to Welles Wilders Average Directional Index in case you are a "newbie".) After many years of extolling the virtues of the ADX in articles and lectures all over the world I have become closely associated with this indicator. That's fine with me and I don't mind being considered the resident expert on ADX. It is an excellent measure of trendiness and a good indicator to be linked with.

However, I think it is a mistake to try and over work or become too dependent on any one indicator. If you were going to build a house you would need more than one tool and you wouldn't try to do it with just a hammer. The same is true of building systems. The ADX can be a very valuable tool if used correctly but it has some major shortcomings that everyone should be aware of: We all know that the ADX is slow. This is because of all the smoothing in the formula. The basic ingredients are smoothed and then the results are smoothed again. For example I think it takes more than 30 bars of data to calculate a 14 bar ADX. This smoothing makes the ADX slow but there is an even greater problem than just the speed of the indicator. The logic of measuring directional movement makes the ADX very reliable at certain times and very unreliable at other times.

A rising ADX is a reliable indication of a trend when there has been an extended sideways period before the trend gets started. Before all the high tech computer mumbo jumbo we used to simply refer to this sideways period as a "basing pattern". The ADX is most effective when it begins to rise from a low level (low = 15 or less). This low level on the ADX indicates that there has been a basing pattern for a while. This interpretation is contradictory to those users of the ADX who want to see the ADX cross above a specified threshold (usually 20 or 25) to indicate that a trend is underway. This technique would make the ADX even slower and means you would be confirming a trend and entering your trade long after the basing pattern was broken. But even if you were late due to your method of interpreting the ADX, following the ADX after a base pattern is still quite reliable. The potential problem I want to bring to your attention in this article is the action of the ADX after major peaks and valleys.
      The logic of the ADX is best visualized as measuring directional movement over a moving window of data on a bar chart. If we have sideways data in the window followed by recent trending data (lets think of rising prices but it could be the reverse), the rising prices would show directional movement relative to the sideways data at the beginning of our window. The ADX would promptly rise and call our attention to the fact that there is now a direction in prices that should continue for a while.          

However, if the prices rise for an extended period and then begin to fall sharply (a typical scenario) we now have a window of data that shows rising prices followed immediately by falling prices. The ADX formula measures the rising prices in the window and compares them with the declining prices in the window. Because the two trends are about equal they cancel each other and the ADX does not detect any net directional movement. The ADX now begins to decline indicating that it is finding no net directional movement in the period measured by the window.

As the window moves forward, eventually the older rising price data falls outside the back of the window so that the window now contains only the more recent downward price movement. The ADX suddenly begins to rise rapidly because the data window at this point contains only one trend. The problem with this new signal is that the downward trend in prices has been underway for quite some time and only now has the ADX finally begun to rise. This is obviously not a good point to be entering a trade to the short side. We are probably nearer the end of the trend than the beginning.

Remember that the ADX works best after a basing period and is unreliable after a "V" bottom or top.
That"s all for now. I'll continue this discussion of the ADX in our next bulletin which should be out very soon

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How To Choose An Online Broker For Currency Trading

With major advances in technology there has been a boom in trading currencies online over the past decade. With so many online forex brokers to choose from, it is important to do your research before opening an account.
The majority of online currency brokers are market-makers. Usually when you buy or sell a currency, you are dealing directly with the broker. This means that you buy from the broker and sell to the broker. The advantage of this is that most brokers that are market-makers will let you trade whatever currency you want at any time.
Online currency brokers will usually offer variable spreads or fixed spreads. Variable spreads will fluctuate depending on how heavily a certain currency pair is being traded. Fixed spreads will remain the same no matter what is going on in the markets. Variable spreads are typically favorable to short-term traders while fixed spreads can benefit longer-term traders.
Another type of online currency broker is the one that claims to be a non-dealing desk. This means that they advertise to be giving you the trading price straight from the interbank market. Most legitimate non-dealing desk brokers will offer very tight spreads and charge a commission for the trade.
There are increasingly more and more brokers that offer online currency trading. It is extremely important to do your research before choosing a broker. There are many online sites that compare and review different forex brokers. Taking time to choose the right broker for you should pay off in the long run

The Ideal FX Trading Robot For Regular Profits

An FX trading robot is actually a software program that automatically enters and exits tradings in the foreign exchange market with the actual aim of earning money. A lot of traders switch to these systems since they're sick and tired of the trouble associated with manual exchanging. When exchanging manually you must spend countless hours each day keeping track of the marketplace, and you also should spend countless hours being up-to-date on your own recent deals. A currency trading robot gets rid of the problem but nevertheless lets you take advantage of the earnings from the foreign exchange market.
I'd like to show everyone which robot is the best, however before that all of us may need to look at the reason why this robot is best.
Several forex robots simply include one way to buy and sell. They follow 1 specific group of rules, regardless of how the market problems are, and perhaps they are meant to trade just about every currency pair. This can be a difficulty considering that the market is constantly altering every day, and each currency pair is actually traded in a different way. The most effective fx trading bot is different, it continuously receives updates from foreign exchange professionals who are generally monitoring the forex market.
Additionally with this particular trading program you get the guarantee of satisfaction. It is one of the most wanted bots that you can buy, so you understand that it profits nicely since many traders are using it day after day. It will always be best to opt for a product or service which is widely recognized, and selecting a forex automatic trading program is no different. So which trading software was I referring to?
The title for top forex trading automated software program goes to the Ivybot. The number of success stories with this particular piece of software is way more compared to its rivals. There are lots of reasons why the Ivybot performs so nicely and this is one thing that the competitors are trying to incorporate into their software package too.
For starters, the Ivybot is really four robots in one. This can be a huge edge on the competition, who make an effort to produce "one-size-fits-all" robots. But there is one thing about this robot that really makes it the greatest to have ever hit the market.
The most important advantage to using this intelligent forex trading software program is the fact that you will be given continuous revisions for life, which is something that is unheard of with some other forex systems. Most forex robot owners can make an extremely hyped up revenue page and then try to get the cash from your own pockets, these people don't care if you make money with it or not. Purchasing the Ivybot is supported by a group of forex experts who constantly keep track of forex and revise the robot as needed to really make it profitable in today's market conditions.

Automated Forex Trading System – several tips to choose the best one

Currency trading enables many people around the world to earn good money working just several hours a day. Foreign currencies market is very profitable, but at the same time it is very risky. Every day we can hear the sad stories from the people, who lost their last money because they wasn`t enough careful working with foreign exchange rate market.

So the only way to succeed in foreign currency trading is to use the Automated forex trading robot. You should already know that the Automated Forex Trading System is the sophisticated software based on the complicated mathematical algorithms, optimized for analyzing the dynamics of the rate exchange trend.

Automatic Forex Trading is much more simple than manual trading. You just need to install and setup you trading system. After that it will handle the entire trading process by itself. This automation level is fascinating, but on the other hand you need to have really highly reliable software to let it trade with your real forex account (where you have you REAL money).

Automated Forex Trading SystemThere are several main rules you must follow to choose the right FX robot. For example let us check EA Sigma Automated Forex Trading System. Firstly we should pay attention at the Testing period. For EA Sigma it is about 10 YEARS!!! I guess you understand how important this parameter is. And what is still more important – the Profit Trades % through these 10 years is about 82%. If you compare this combination of 10 years and 82% with the other available Automated Forex Trading Systems, you will find out that EA Sigma has really awesome results.

On the example of EA Sigma you can also see the significance of complex auto adaptive algorithms, which are used by the system. You must understand that the foreign exchange rates dynamics is constantly altering and we can do nothing about that. But EA Sigma is able to adopt the changes and so you may be sure that in several years it will gain you the same profits as at the moment.

Why Use Multiple Exits?

A recent message from one of our members questioned our use of multiple exits and the fact that the exits in a particular system were very complex and would sometimes move closer to the prices and then suddenly move farther away. The member questioned whether the exits were working properly and wondered about the logic of having so many different exit strategies operating within one system. I sent the member a brief reply and promised to write a Bulletin that explained our philosophy and procedures about the use of multiple exits in more detail.

When we develop trading systems the entry is usually just a few lines of code but the exit strategies and coding are often very complex. We may have a system with only one very simple entry method and that system may have a dozen or more exit strategies. The reason for devoting so much effort and attention to achieving accurate exits is that over our many years of trading we have come to appreciate both the importance and the difficulty of accurate exits.

Entries are easy. Before we enter any trade we know exactly what has occurred up to that point and if those conditions and events are satisfactory according to the rules of our system we can generate a valid entry signal. Entries are easy because we are able to set all the conditions and the market must conform to our rules or nothing happens. However, once we have entered a trade anything can happen. Now that we are in the market the possible scenarios for what might happen to our open position are endless. It would be extremely naïve to expect to hope to efficiently deal with all possible trading events with only one or two simple exit strategies. However, that seems to be the common practice and, in fact, many popular trading systems simply reverse the entry rules to generate their exits.
      We believe that good exits require a great deal of planning and foresight and that simple exits will not be nearly as efficient as a series of well planned exits that allow for a multitude of possibilities. Our exit strategies need to accomplish a series of critical tasks. We want to protect our capital against any catastrophic losses so we need a dependable money management exit that limits the size of our loss without getting whipsawed. Then if the trade is working in our favor we would like to move the exit closer so that the risk to our capital is reduced or eliminated. As soon as possible we need to have a "breakeven" exit in place that prevents our profitable trade from turning into a loss.          


In most of our systems, our goal is to maximize the size of our profit on each trade so we do not simply take a small profit once we see it. This goal means that we need to implement an exit strategy that protects a portion of our small profit while allowing the trade to have the opportunity to become a much bigger profit. If the trade went in our favor every day the exits could be greatly simplified but unfortunately that is not the way markets typically trade. We have to allow room for some minor fluctuations on a day to day basis. In order to facilitate our objective of maximizing the profit of each trade, in some cases we may decide to move our exit point farther away to avoid getting stopped out prematurely. For example, lets look at our Yo Yo exit that is based on the theory that we never want to stay in a position after a severe one-day move against us. (See Bulletin number 14 for an explanation of the Yo Yo exit.)

This highly efficient exit is based on measuring the amount of price movement from the previous day's close. For example we may want to exit immediately if the adverse price movement reaches one and a half Average True Ranges from the previous close. This volatility-based exit will move away indefinitely as the result of a series of adverse closing prices caused by days where the price moved against us but our volatility trigger was never quite reached. Obviously an exit that can move away from prices indefinitely is no use at all in limiting the size of our losses so the Yo Yo exit must always be used in conjunction with other exit strategies that do not move away. Now that we have implemented the Yo Yo exit to protect our trade from a severe one-day reversal in direction, we have still not addressed the question of taking profits. So far, we have exits in place to protect from large losses, to lock in a break-even point and to get us out on a sudden trend reversal but we still have not addressed the important issue of taking some profits on the trade.

We like to shoot for big profits and the bigger the profits become the closer we like to protect them. This strategy calls for multiple profit-taking exits. If we have a $1,000 profit we might want to protect 50% of it and be willing to give back $500 of our open profit. We can place an exit at $500 above our entry price. This will allow us to hold the position in the hope that the profit will grow. However if we have a $10,000 open profit I'm sure we wouldn't want to give back 50% of that. Also, let's hope that our exit stop is not still sitting back there at $500 above our entry price. For best results our exits need to adjust at various levels of profitability.

Many traders have asked us about the robustness of a system that has a many exit rules. The general perception is that a system with fewer rules is likely to be more robust. However I would disagree with applying that common belief without careful thought. Look at the exits in these two over-simplified systems:

System A:
Use a $1500 money management stop. (Limits loss to $1500.)
When profit reaches $5,000, exit with a stop at entry plus $4500.


System B:
Use a $1500 money management stop. (Limits loss to $1500.00)
When profit reaches $1,000, exit with a stop at entry price.
When profit reaches $2,000, exit with a stop at entry plus $1,250.
When profit reaches $3,500, exit with a stop at entry plus $2,500.
When profit reaches $5,000, exit with a stop at entry plus $4500.
When profit is greater than $7,500 exit with a stop at the previous day's low.

Some system traders might argue that since system A has fewer rules it should be more robust (most likely to work in the future.) We would suggest that system B is much more likely to work in the future even though it has more rules. System A is not going to make any money at all if the open profit never reaches $5,000. Once the profit exceeds $5,000 the only exit is at the $4,500 level. System A is very limited in what it is prepared for. It either makes $4,500 or it loses $1500.

As you can see, system B is obviously prepared for many more possibilities. It is conceivable (but not likely) that system A may somehow produce better test results on a historical basis because of an accidental (or intentional) curve fit. However, we would much rather trade our real money with system B. Simpler is not always better when it comes to exit planning.

Trailing Stops - The Chandelier Exit

In a previous article we discussed the Channel Exit which trails a stop based on previous LOW points. In this Article we will discuss a stop placement strategy that trails our stop based on previous HIGH points.         

The Chandelier Exit hangs a trailing stop from either the highest high of the trade or the highest close of the trade. The distance from the high point to the trailing stop is probably best measured in units of Average True Range. However the distance from the high point could also be measured in dollars or in contract based points

Here are three simple examples: (As usual we will use long side examples. Simply reverse the logic for short trades.)

1. Place a stop at the highest high since we entered the trade minus three Average True Ranges. 2. Place a stop at the highest high of the trade minus $1500.00. 3. Place a stop at the highest high of the trade minus 150 points.

The value of this trailing stop is that it moves upward very promptly as higher highs are reached. The Chandelier name seems appropriate and should help us to remember the logic of this very effective exit. Just as a chandelier hangs down from the ceiling of a room, the Chandelier Exit hangs down from the high point or the ceiling of our trade.

The reason we prefer to use units of Average True Range to measure the distance from the high to our stop is that the ATR is applicable across markets and is adaptive to changes in volatility. We can use the same formula to trade corn, yen, coffee, or stocks. If the trading ranges expand or contract our stop will automatically adjust and move to the appropriate level continuously staying in tune with changing market conditions. (Members who are not already familiar with the many valuable applications of Average True Range should be sure to review Bulletins #10, 11, 13, and 14.)

In Dr. Van K. Tharp's excellent book, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, he refers to a study he conducted to demonstrate that an effective exit strategy could produce profits even with random entries. We were not surprised to see that the exit methodology he used to produce the profitable test results across a diversified portfolio of futures markets was the Chandelier Exit. (Tharp used three ATRs trailing from the highest or lowest close and used a ten-day exponential moving average to calculate the ATR.)


Protecting Open Profits
      When we discussed the Channel Exit in Bulletin #34 we suggested that at the beginning of a trade we should use a wide stop and then, as profits are accumulated, tighten the stop by reducing the number of bars in the Channel. The same profit-protection logic can be applied using the Chandelier Exit. At the beginning of a trade the distance to the stop in most futures markets should probably be in the neighborhood of 2.5 to 4 Average True Ranges. As the trade becomes increasingly profitable we can bring the stop closer by reducing the units of ATR from the high to our stop.          

Let's assume that we started with 3 ATRs at the beginning of the trade. After we have reached our first profit level we might tighten the stop to trail the high point at only 1.5 ATRs. After the second profit level is reached we might want to tighten the trailing stop to only one ATR. We have had good results with some highly profitable trades by trailing exits as close as a half an ATR. We have found that some markets have better trending characteristics than others and we prefer to adjust the trailing stops on a market by market basis so there is no universal formula that we would recommend. The important message we want to convey is that to capture the maximum profit potential of trend-following trades the trailing stops need to be tightened as significant profits are accumulated.

Keep in mind that although the highs used to hang the Chandelier move only upward the changes in volatility can shorten or lengthen the distance to the actual stop. If you want to see less fluctuation in the stop distance use a longer moving average to calculate ATR. If you want the stop placement to be more adaptive to changing market conditions, use a shorter moving average. We normally use about twenty bars to calculate the ATR unless there is a specific reason to adjust it. In our experience the use of very short averages (3 or 4 bars) for the ATR can often create problems when there are brief periods of small ranges that tend to bring the stops too close. These abnormally close stops may cause us to exit prematurely. If we want to have a short and highly adaptive ATR without risking placing stops that are too close, we can calculate a short average and a longer average (maybe four bars and twenty bars) and use the average that produces the widest stop. This technique allows our stops to move away quickly during periods of high volatility without the risk of being unnecessarily whipsawed during brief periods of low volatility.

Combining the Channel Exit and the Chandelier

We like to start our trades with the trailing Channel Exit and then add the Chandelier Exit after the price has moved away from our entry point so that the open trade is profitable. The Channel Exit is pegged at a low point and does not move up as new profits are reached. The Channel Exit will move up only when enough time has passed that the previous low is dropped from the data period of the channel. The Channel Exit moves up very gradually over time but it does not move up relative to any recent highs that are being made. This is why we need the Chandelier Exit in place to make sure that our exits are never too far away from the high point of the trade.

By combining the two exit techniques we can use the Channel Exit as an appropriate stop that very gradually rises at the beginning of the trade. However if the trade makes a run in our favor the prices will quickly move very far away from our slowly trailing Channel Exit. Once we are profitable we need to have a better exit that protects more of our profit. At this point it would make sense to switch to the Chandelier Exit which will rise instantly whenever new highs are reached. This valuable feature of the Chandelier makes it one of our most logical exits from our profitable trades.

As you can see, the Chandelier Exit is a very useful tool. However coding the Chandelier Exit in TradeStation is not necessarily a straightforward matter.

The Key to Forex Trading Success

Forex traders that wish to succeed in these treacherous markets must have a trading plan and discipline. The trading plan should include a set of rules that the trader follows, such as when to enter or exit a trade, and when to place a stop loss order. I can confess from my trading experience that most of my losses in the forex market were not due to a faulty strategy, but lack of discipline. I often broke my own rules and even moved stop loss levels that were set to limit my risk. After several painful losses that could have been much less had I followed my own strategy, I realized that I was my own enemy and often sabotaged my own trading strategy. Don't be surprised, it is part of being human.
Achieving discipline is not easy. You must first understand who you are and what your trading temperament is. Automating your trading actions will help you act in a disciplined manner. Emotions and impulses should be dormant when you trade, and should not affect your trading decisions. To stay disciplined, I printed my trading rules in big letters and posted them next to my computer. My goal was to follow these rules like a robot.
If you are like me and get very emotional while trading, and have difficulty executing the rules in your trading plan, you should consider automated software that trades based on preset rules. The software becomes a robot that applies sound trading and risk management strategies without the interference a human, thereby removing the emotional component from trading.
The MetaTrader platform, offered by several forex brokers, offers an Expert Advisor (EA) feature that allows the trader to fully automate trading by programming their trading strategy. While programming the MetaTrader rules may be cumbersome for a beginner, especially with limited computer knowledge, there are several effective robots or Expert Advisors available for sale. These forex robots, programmed by professional traders, can be easily installed by a beginner into a MetaTrader supported brokerage account using a special drag and drop function. Take the emotion out of your trading and begin enjoying the benefits of an automated and disciplined strategy.

The Best Forex Robots Minimise Your Work and Increase Your Earnings

The Foreign exchange market or the Forex market is filled with traders from all over the world. If you want to enter the world of Forex then you need to be prepared to face the heat. For a newcomer it becomes really hard to make huge profits unless he/she gets help from automated trading software.
The best Forex robots ensure that the amateur trader gets a fighting chance in the cutthroat market. Forex is a global market that operates twenty four hours for the most of the week, thereby making it very difficult for a person to monitor it continuously at all times of the day.
If you already have a primary source of income, you can simply get the best Forex software and let it handle your workload. The Forex robots can be set to auto mode, where the trader can go on attending to his chores and the robot trades by itself. The result of the Forex trading robot is mixed bag of losses and profits, with the profits outnumbering the losses.
The fact remains that if you do not have a dime of knowledge in the Forex market, you can never succeed even if you use the best Forex robots. The best idea would be to get trained as a Forex trader so that you can get the best out of the Forex software. Forex rewards people who have the diligence to follow it and make trades effectively. So use the Forex trading software after you get to know more about them.
If you are looking to increase your trading portfolio and make more money with Forex trading, then what you need is Forex Software.

The Key Success in the Forex Market

Greater trading hours and liquidity attracts a lot of new traders to the forex market every day. The figures report that most new traders fall flat on their faces and lives much all their initial investment and the reason is typically either lack of a trading plan or inability to react quickly and effectively enough to get out in time.
This market is ideally suited for day traders because of the great volatility, and there is a great deal money to be made. If you've been interested in breaking the forex market, do yourself a favor and take the precautions. This is the secret of success in the forex market.
First, it's very important to have an exit strategy every time you enter a trade. Just as important as having a strategy of acting on it. Oftentimes the trader will lose out because emotions get in their way and they stand to trade longer than they should. Have a trading plan, and stick to it.
Forex trade programs which are automated have been garnering a number of favorable reviews in the market these days amongst critics. Programs like FAP Turbo or Forex Tracer keep a constant watch over real time market data, looking for profitable trading opportunities, and investing accordingly once they find one.
These programs even work defensively so the you're always on the winning end of your trades as they track their trade's performances in the market to ensure that it's constantly on the incline. Once that trade proves nonprofitable for you, it cuts the cord and repeat the process again.
If you are new in starting out or simply don't have the time or experience to do the analytical work for yourself, a number of these traders have been using these programs to see some reliable gains come from the forex market.