Trailing Stops - The Chandelier Exit

In a previous article we discussed the Channel Exit which trails a stop based on previous LOW points. In this Article we will discuss a stop placement strategy that trails our stop based on previous HIGH points.         

The Chandelier Exit hangs a trailing stop from either the highest high of the trade or the highest close of the trade. The distance from the high point to the trailing stop is probably best measured in units of Average True Range. However the distance from the high point could also be measured in dollars or in contract based points

Here are three simple examples: (As usual we will use long side examples. Simply reverse the logic for short trades.)

1. Place a stop at the highest high since we entered the trade minus three Average True Ranges. 2. Place a stop at the highest high of the trade minus $1500.00. 3. Place a stop at the highest high of the trade minus 150 points.

The value of this trailing stop is that it moves upward very promptly as higher highs are reached. The Chandelier name seems appropriate and should help us to remember the logic of this very effective exit. Just as a chandelier hangs down from the ceiling of a room, the Chandelier Exit hangs down from the high point or the ceiling of our trade.

The reason we prefer to use units of Average True Range to measure the distance from the high to our stop is that the ATR is applicable across markets and is adaptive to changes in volatility. We can use the same formula to trade corn, yen, coffee, or stocks. If the trading ranges expand or contract our stop will automatically adjust and move to the appropriate level continuously staying in tune with changing market conditions. (Members who are not already familiar with the many valuable applications of Average True Range should be sure to review Bulletins #10, 11, 13, and 14.)

In Dr. Van K. Tharp's excellent book, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, he refers to a study he conducted to demonstrate that an effective exit strategy could produce profits even with random entries. We were not surprised to see that the exit methodology he used to produce the profitable test results across a diversified portfolio of futures markets was the Chandelier Exit. (Tharp used three ATRs trailing from the highest or lowest close and used a ten-day exponential moving average to calculate the ATR.)


Protecting Open Profits
      When we discussed the Channel Exit in Bulletin #34 we suggested that at the beginning of a trade we should use a wide stop and then, as profits are accumulated, tighten the stop by reducing the number of bars in the Channel. The same profit-protection logic can be applied using the Chandelier Exit. At the beginning of a trade the distance to the stop in most futures markets should probably be in the neighborhood of 2.5 to 4 Average True Ranges. As the trade becomes increasingly profitable we can bring the stop closer by reducing the units of ATR from the high to our stop.          

Let's assume that we started with 3 ATRs at the beginning of the trade. After we have reached our first profit level we might tighten the stop to trail the high point at only 1.5 ATRs. After the second profit level is reached we might want to tighten the trailing stop to only one ATR. We have had good results with some highly profitable trades by trailing exits as close as a half an ATR. We have found that some markets have better trending characteristics than others and we prefer to adjust the trailing stops on a market by market basis so there is no universal formula that we would recommend. The important message we want to convey is that to capture the maximum profit potential of trend-following trades the trailing stops need to be tightened as significant profits are accumulated.

Keep in mind that although the highs used to hang the Chandelier move only upward the changes in volatility can shorten or lengthen the distance to the actual stop. If you want to see less fluctuation in the stop distance use a longer moving average to calculate ATR. If you want the stop placement to be more adaptive to changing market conditions, use a shorter moving average. We normally use about twenty bars to calculate the ATR unless there is a specific reason to adjust it. In our experience the use of very short averages (3 or 4 bars) for the ATR can often create problems when there are brief periods of small ranges that tend to bring the stops too close. These abnormally close stops may cause us to exit prematurely. If we want to have a short and highly adaptive ATR without risking placing stops that are too close, we can calculate a short average and a longer average (maybe four bars and twenty bars) and use the average that produces the widest stop. This technique allows our stops to move away quickly during periods of high volatility without the risk of being unnecessarily whipsawed during brief periods of low volatility.

Combining the Channel Exit and the Chandelier

We like to start our trades with the trailing Channel Exit and then add the Chandelier Exit after the price has moved away from our entry point so that the open trade is profitable. The Channel Exit is pegged at a low point and does not move up as new profits are reached. The Channel Exit will move up only when enough time has passed that the previous low is dropped from the data period of the channel. The Channel Exit moves up very gradually over time but it does not move up relative to any recent highs that are being made. This is why we need the Chandelier Exit in place to make sure that our exits are never too far away from the high point of the trade.

By combining the two exit techniques we can use the Channel Exit as an appropriate stop that very gradually rises at the beginning of the trade. However if the trade makes a run in our favor the prices will quickly move very far away from our slowly trailing Channel Exit. Once we are profitable we need to have a better exit that protects more of our profit. At this point it would make sense to switch to the Chandelier Exit which will rise instantly whenever new highs are reached. This valuable feature of the Chandelier makes it one of our most logical exits from our profitable trades.

As you can see, the Chandelier Exit is a very useful tool. However coding the Chandelier Exit in TradeStation is not necessarily a straightforward matter.

The Money Management Exit

   

In 'Importance of Exits' we emphasized the importance of exits in general and pointed out that it is the exits and not the entries which actually determine the outcome of our trades. Now that we have established the importance of exits we will be more specific and write about various types of exits. Probably the simplest and most critical exit is the money management exit or the classic "stop loss". This is the exit that protects our trading capital and prevents ruin.

To trade futures and other leveraged investments without a money management stop is certain ruin. Well-known trader and author Victor Niederhoffer lost tens of millions of dollars of his client's money when he traded his fund down to zero and some twenty-million beyond. No surprise there. The inevitable outcome of an investment with this ill-fated trader was clearly determined years ago when Niederhoffer wrote:

"I have never used stops, even to bail myself out. Somehow, having a fixed rule to exit provides my adversaries too great an advantage. " - Victor Niederhoffer, from "The Education of a Speculator", page 376
      Niederhoffer's demise was no surprise to industry professionals. The only speculation was on how long it would take for him to go bust. To his credit, he lasted longer than was generally expected. Niederhoffer's paranoia about money management stops is not uncommon among naive beginners but it is an attitude that is rarely seen among seasoned professionals. The first priority in trading must always be to preserve our trading capital from the risk of catastrophic ruin. Everything else becomes secondary to this objective.          

Note carefully how we have stated this goal. We did not say that our goal was to eliminate or reduce the risk of loss. Reasonable losses are an integral part of the trading process. Good traders accept losses as a cost of doing business. In fact I have observed that good traders probably take more losses than bad traders do. The critical issue in this discussion is the size of the losses that are acceptable. Catastrophic losses must be avoided at all costs and these losses are easily avoided by always employing a simple money management stop.

Niederhoffer mistakenly assumed that he was such a good trader that he could violate the cardinal rule of trading and not use money management stops. The truth is that good traders actually need money management stops more than bad traders do. Bad traders are going to fail very quickly whether they use money management stops or not while good traders will survive and prosper indefinitely. The better and longer you trade the more likely that you will eventually encounter a potentially catastrophic event.

The money management stop commits a trader to a pre-defined loss point that a trader can accept and the stop will allow him to exit a losing trade unemotionally. The trader who uses a money management stop knows from the outset that he can only give the trade a limited amount of room to move against him, and after that, he will cut his losses by exiting the trade according to his plan. This is a tremendous psychological advantage. Having a fixed point to exit a trade with a loss removes a great deal of stress in dealing with any losing position. The trader with his stop in place always knows exactly when he has to exit and avoids the pain of having to watch the loss grow larger and larger day after day.

This psychological advantage of money management stops also helps the trader before he takes a trade. Suppose the system called for us to take a trade in a specific market tomorrow, and we had an unknown and unlimited potential for loss. No knowledgeable trader would be willing to take such a trade. However, if you have a money management stop and know exactly what the worst loss could be beforehand, it is psychologically much easier to pull the trigger and confidently enter that trade. We already know and are prepared for the worse case scenario and we have determined that the amount of risk is acceptable to us. Money management stops give the trader the benefit of a worst loss estimate on any trade. This knowledge gives us the confidence to enter the trade and the psychological preparation to accept the loss should it occur. Of course money management stops may not always predict the exact amount of the worst loss, since markets can sometimes gap against the position and cause a much larger loss than planned. However in most cases the money management stop is a reasonable indication of the worst loss likely in a trade.

Over the course of this series of articles about exits we will describe a few of the basic money management stops that all traders should be familiar with. We will describe the basic Dollar Stop in this Bulletin and describe other recommended Money Management stops in subsequent bulletins.

The Dollar Stop: The simplest money management stop is a stop that is positioned a fixed dollar amount away from the entry price of a trade. Dollar stops are easy to implement and most trading software allow for easy incorporation of dollar stops into any trading system. Simple as this may sound, there are incorrect and correct ways to use a dollar stop in your systems.

The incorrect way to use dollar stops is to figure the maximum amount you can afford to lose in the trade, and then set the dollar stop accordingly. Unfortunately, the market does not make adverse price movements based on how much money you can afford to lose.

The correct way to set dollar stops is to use market characteristics and system testing statistics to determine its placement. For instance, dollar stops should not be placed too close to the markets because random price movement will cause the trade to be stopped out prematurely. Neither should dollar stops be placed too far away from the market, since that means you are willing to take a much larger loss than is necessary. In our experience, dollar stops should be placed based on some volatility measure of the market. For instance, if the average daily range of a market is $1,000, it is recommended that the dollar stop on that market should be at least $1,000 if not more. This amount should keep the stop out of the random price movements while maintaining its function of capital preservation. Again, it must be stressed that adequate system testing and analysis must precede the implementation of any dollar stop to ensure proper performance.

It is important to understand the volatility characteristics of the market you are trading and not to blindly use a fixed dollar stop for all markets, nor even for a single market if that market has changing volatility characteristics. The challenge then is to develop money management stops that are adaptive to current market volatility conditions.

Switch Time Frames For Better Exits

I just returned from a weeklong Trader's Camp hosted by Dr. Alexander Elder in a beautiful island nation in the South Pacific called Vanuatu. When I studied geography in school many years ago, Vanuatu was known as the New Hebrides islands. Vanuatu is located about 1,000 miles west of Fiji.

If you have read Elder's excellent book, Trading For A Living, you will recall that Dr. Elder is an advocate of using multiple time frames for trading both stocks and futures. For example, he suggests looking at the weekly chart to make sure that the weekly trend is firmly up before trading the long side of a market based on the daily chart patterns. This approach makes good sense and I highly recommend his book and his strategy.

While listening to Dr. Elder explain his multiple time frame strategy for entries, my thoughts wandered to the application of his ideas to my favorite subject - exits. One of my goals in trading is to find exit strategies that do a good job of protecting open profits. One method of accomplishing this goal is to simply move the daily stops closer once a specific profit objective has been reached. However, it might also make sense to simply switch to a chart with a shorter time frame once we have reached a reasonable profit objective.

Here is an example of how such a strategy might work. Let's say that we have been trading XYZ stock on an intermediate term basis using daily charts. The trade is working out very well and we now have six ATRs of open profit. (See previous Bulletins for an explanation of how to use Average True Range to set profit targets). Up to this point we have been using our well-known Chandelier trailing stop placed at 3 ATRs below the high point of the trade.

However, now that we have reached our primary profit objective we want to tighten up our stop to protect more of our profits. We could reduce our Chandelier stop from 3 ATRs to 2 ATRs and continue using the daily bars or we could switch our chart to one hour bars and continue to trail the Chandelier exit at 3 ATRs based on the intraday one-hour bars. The basic idea is to switch to a chart with a shorter time frame once we have reached our profit objective. This procedure should allow us to let our profits continue to run but we would be protecting our open profits with much closer stops by using the chart with a much shorter time frame.

      Combining our exit strategy with Dr. Elder's entry strategy would provide the following sequence: for entries we first examine the weekly chart and then use the daily chart to trigger the trade. Once we are ready to exit our trade we examine the daily chart and then trigger our exit using the hourly chart.          

Of course this strategy would require some extra work as well as the use of intraday data. The alternative would be to simply reduce the number of ATRs used to hang the Chandelier exit on the daily chart. Either way we do it, the logic is to move our stops closer once we have achieved a worthwhile trading profit.

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Notes On Bear Markets

One of the best ways to gauge a bear market is to observe the reaction to good and bad news. In a bear market the averages go down even when the news is good. (For example, look what happened the last time the Fed cut interest rates.) We will know that the bear market is finally over when we observe the market reacting favorably to good news. In the meantime, we can take some consolation in the fact that at the present rate of decline we will soon be at zero. At least at that level we should be able to safely resume trading stocks from the long side.