Short History

Although it is the best forecasting tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. Nevertheless, that description does impart an immense amount of knowledge about the market's position within the behavioral continuum and therefore about its probable ensuing path. The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis. This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market's general position and outlook. At times, its accuracy in identifying, and even anticipating, changes in direction is almost unbelievable. Many areas of mass human activity follow the Wave Principle, but the stock market is where it is most popularly applied. Indeed, the stock market considered alone is far more important than it seems to casual observers. The level of aggregate stock prices is a direct and immediate measure of the popular valuation of man's total productive capability. That this valuation has form is a fact of profound implications that will ultimately revolutionize the social sciences. That, however, is a discussion for another time.

R.N. Elliott's genius consisted of a wonderfully disciplined mental process, suited to studying charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its predecessors with such thoroughness and precision that he could construct a network of principles that covered all market action known to him up to the mid-1940s. At that time, with the Dow in the 100s, Elliott predicted a great bull market for the next several decades that would exceed all expectations at a time when most investors felt it impossible that the Dow could even better its 1929 peak. As we shall see, phenomenal stock market forecasts, some of pinpoint accuracy years in advance, have accompanied the history of the application of the Elliott Wave approach.

Elliott had theories regarding the origin and meaning of the patterns he discovered, which we will present and expand upon in Lessons 16-19. Until then, suffice it to say that the patterns described in Lessons 1-15 have stood the test of time.

Often one will hear several different interpretations of the market's Elliott Wave status, especially when cursory, off-the-cuff studies of the averages are made by latter day experts.

However, most uncertainties can be avoided by keeping charts on both arithmetic and semilogarithmic scale and by taking care to follow the rules and guidelines as laid down in this course. Welcome to the world of Elliott.